📌 At a Glance (FY25 Snapshot)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CMP (as of Jun 6) | ₹20.93 |
| Market Cap | ₹65,642 Cr |
| P/E (TTM) | 26.8x |
| PB Ratio | 1.4x |
| ROE (FY25) | 5.1% |
| ROA (FY25) | 0.6% |
| Piotroski Score | 7/9 |
| 1-Year Return | -4.2% |
| Analyst Rating | SELL (12 votes) |
🧨 The YES Bank Timeline (2019-2024)
Let’s recap the public humiliation and slow rebound:
- 2019-20: Rana Kapoor era ends. NPA bomb explodes. Stock crashes from ₹400+ to ₹10.
- March 2020: RBI intervenes, places moratorium. SBI-led rescue deal with consortium (SBI, ICICI, HDFC, Kotak). Board restructured.
- 2021: Prashant Kumar takes over as CEO. Gradual cleanup of the balance sheet begins. Exit from RBI’s moratorium plan.
- 2022: Controversial AT-1 bonds write-off worth ₹8,415 Cr. Legal battles begin. Loss of investor trust continues.
- 2023: Credit costs drop. GNPA falls below 3%. Some institutions exit, FIIs re-enter cautiously. But NIMs remain under pressure.
- 2024: YES Bank turns profitable consistently. ROE >5% for the first time in years. CASA and deposits stabilize. But stock stays stuck around ₹15–25.
🏦 The Business Model Rebuild
YES Bank once dreamt of becoming the next Axis Bank. Slick marketing. Jazzed-up ATMs. Swanky loans to Jet Airways, DHFL, Cox & Kings…
Today, it’s focused on being the next Bank of Baroda – slow, steady, and regulator-friendly:
- Retail + MSME focused lending
- Deposit franchise improvement
- No high-risk infra lending
- Repositioning itself as a digital-first mid-sized bank
Also, they still don’t lend to startups or crypto. So if you’re a Shark Tank founder, don’t bother applying.
📈 5-Year Financial Performance
| FY | Operating Revenue (₹ Cr) | Net Profit (₹ Cr) | EPS (approx) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | ~10,800 | -16,418 | – |
| 2021 | ~9,500 | 2,234 | ~0.9 |
| 2022 | ~9,000 | 1,066 | ~0.4 |
| 2023 | ~10,365 | 2,224 | ~0.9 |
| 2024 | ~11,370 | 3,435 | ~1.2 |
| 2025 (Est.) | ~12,000 | ~4,300 | ~1.5 |
Five years ago, YES Bank was a sinking ship with NPAs as big as LIC’s investment losses. Today, it’s making baby steps back to credibility.
📊 Asset Quality: From Titanic to Tugboat
| Metric | FY20 | FY25 (Est.) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| GNPA | 16.8% | ~2% | Huge drop |
| Net NPA | 5.03% | ~0.7% | Very healthy |
| PCR | 60% | ~85% | Improved |
| CASA Ratio | 30.2% | ~29% | Slight dip |
| Credit Growth | -15% | +13% | Turnaround |
The cleanup has worked. But with most of the bad loans provisioned and written off, the next question is: what now?
👔 Management & Governance
| Name | Designation | Compensation (FY24) |
|---|---|---|
| Prashant Kumar | MD & CEO | ₹3.78 Cr |
| Rajan Pental | Executive Director | ₹4.11 Cr |
| Rekha Murthy | Independent Director | ₹44.25 L |
| Thekepat K K | SBI Nominee | ₹49.25 L |
| Akshay Sapru | Country Head | Undisclosed |
No brash Rana Kapoor-level flash here. PSU-style ethics. Glass cabins with more paperwork than profits.
🧾 Lawsuits, Bondholders & Broken Trust
- The AT-1 bond write-off is still in court. ₹8,400 Cr vanished overnight.
- FIIs like Vanguard exited, later re-entered cautiously.
- Legacy investors (including HNIs) burned badly.
Trust is like a savings account. YES Bank over-withdrew.
🔍 Analyst Sentiment
| Sentiment | Count |
|---|---|
| Strong Sell | 3 |
| Sell | 7 |
| Hold | 2 |
| Buy | 0 |
The verdict from D-Street: “Show me more ROE.”
🛑 Red Flags to Watch
- Valuation mismatch: CMP ₹20 with 26x PE is absurd for a 0.6% ROA bank.
- Thin margins: Net Interest Margin (NIM) still around ~2.6% vs 3.7–4.2% for ICICI, Axis
- PSU overhang: Still under SBI’s shadow; limited autonomy
- Low dividend: No rewards for shareholders (yet)
- Sluggish stock movement: Rangebound ₹14–₹23 for nearly 2 years
💰 Fair Value Estimate (FY27 Forward)
Assuming YES Bank keeps improving…
- FY27 PAT = ₹7,000 Cr (ambitious)
- EPS = ₹2.4
- PE = 20–24x (reasonable)
➡️ Fair Value Range = ₹48 – ₹58/share
CMP = ₹20.9 → Upside Potential = 130%–160%, but timeline = 3 years minimum
This is not a momentum trade. This is a waiting room play.
🧠 EduInvesting Verdict
YES Bank’s 5-year arc is India’s greatest financial comeback since Harshad Mehta went from jail to TV shows. Only this time, the ending’s not scripted.
✅ They cleaned up their loan book.
✅ They returned to profit.
✅ They escaped the ICU.
But can they become truly investible again?
If you believe in:
- India’s credit growth story
- PSU + private sector hybrids
- Turnarounds that don’t go bankrupt twice…
Then YES Bank might deserve a place in your watchlist. But only if you keep your expectations below SBI FD returns.
This stock is a phoenix with a limp.
Author: Prashant Marathe
Date: 6 June 2025
Tags: YES Bank, PSU rescue, banking recap, 5-year turnaround, private sector bank
