🧂 At a Glance
Once the market’s favorite QSR multibagger, Jubilant FoodWorks now faces a tough crowd. Slowing same-store growth, pressure on margins, and a P/E ratio that looks like it was calculated using pizza toppings. With Domino’s, Dunkin’, Popeyes, Hong’s Kitchen, and even Turkey’s COFFY brand, the menu looks full. But is the market appetite still there?
📦 The Menu: Jubilant’s Brand Buffet
🍕 Domino’s Pizza – India’s QSR mafia don
🍩 Dunkin’ – Rebranded coffee + donut chain (India)
🍗 Popeyes – Louisiana-style fried chicken in India
🥡 Hong’s Kitchen – Desi Chinese QSR
☕ COFFY (Turkey) – Turkey’s 8th largest café brand via DP Eurasia
🚗 Also – Expanding cloud kitchens, own supply chain, last-mile tech
🎯 Territory Domination
- Domino’s: Exclusive franchise in India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh
- Popeyes + Dunkin’: India rights
- Domino’s + COFFY in Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia
🧾 5-Year Financial Performance
| Year | Revenue (₹ Cr) | EBITDA (₹ Cr) | EBITDA Margin | PAT (₹ Cr) | EPS (₹) | ROCE | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY21 | 3,312 | 780 | 24% | 231 | 3.51 | 16% | 13% |
| FY22 | 4,396 | 1,106 | 25% | 418 | 6.37 | 21% | 20% |
| FY23 | 5,158 | 1,136 | 22% | 353 | 5.35 | 16% | 17% |
| FY24 | 5,654 | 1,158 | 20% | 400 | 6.05 | 11% | 14% |
| FY25 | 8,142 | 1,568 | 19% | 217 | 3.19 | 13% | 11% |
📉 EPS peaked in FY22, now almost halved
📉 ROCE halved too
🧠 Sales up, profits flat — the classic “topline trap”
🔍 What’s Cooking Behind the Scenes?
🔥 Store Count Inflation vs. Same Store Sales Growth (SSSG) Deflation
- Domino’s store count: >1,900 in India
- Popeyes ramping fast (60+ stores)
- But: SSSG for Domino’s has been single-digit or negative
🛑 High inflation in cheese, wheat, and delivery costs
🧂 Aggressive discounting by competitors (especially Devyani & Rebel Foods)
💡 Tech investments: Jubilant is building its own ordering stack, CRM & delivery layer
🏗️ Capex heavy: ₹1,000+ Cr invested in FY24
📉 Quarterly Breakdown: Is Recovery in Sight?
| Quarter | Sales (₹ Cr) | PAT (₹ Cr) | OPM | EPS (₹) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY25 | 1,933 | 58 | 20% | 0.85 |
| Q2 FY25 | 1,955 | 67 | 20% | 0.97 |
| Q3 FY25 | 2,151 | 43 | 19% | 0.65 |
| Q4 FY25 | 2,103 | 49 | 18% | 0.73 |
📉 Margins are now below 20%
📉 Profits haven’t recovered to FY22 levels despite 80% more sales
🏦 Balance Sheet & Cash Flow
| Metric | FY25 Value |
|---|---|
| Total Debt | ₹4,372 Cr |
| Cash Equivalents | ₹1,660 Cr |
| Net Debt | ₹2,712 Cr |
| ROCE | 13% |
| ROE | 11% |
| Interest Coverage | 1.3x 😬 |
📛 Low coverage and rising lease liabilities
✅ Operating Cash Flow: ₹1,668 Cr
📉 Free Cash Flow eroded due to heavy capex in Turkey + new brands
📉 Shareholding Pattern: DII Party, FII Exit
| Category | Mar 2022 | Mar 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Promoter | 41.94% | 41.94% |
| FIIs | 29.80% | 20.54% ⬇️ |
| DIIs | 17.20% | 31.03% ⬆️ |
| Public | 10.71% | 5.94% ⬇️ |
🧳 FIIs have exited ~10% stake in 3 years
🛒 DIIs (Mutual Funds, LIC, etc.) almost doubled stake
💰 Valuation: Still Priced Like a Growth God?
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CMP | ₹678 |
| EPS (FY25) | ₹3.19 |
| P/E | 212x 🫠 |
| EV/EBITDA | ~28x |
| Price/Book | 21.3x |
🧮 EduInvesting Fair Value Calculation
📘 Method 1: P/E Normalization
- FY25 EPS: ₹3.2
- Historical sustainable P/E = 60x (QSR premium)
👉 Fair Value = ₹3.2 × 60 = ₹192 ❌ (way below current price)
But let’s assume FY27 EPS recovers to ₹6
👉 ₹6 × 60 = ₹360 ✅ reasonable if margin expands again
📊 Method 2: EV/EBITDA
- FY25 EBITDA = ₹1,568 Cr
- EV/EBITDA average for global QSR = 18–20x
👉 EV = ₹1,568 × 20 = ₹31,360 Cr
👉 Add ₹1,660 Cr cash → ₹33,000 Cr Equity Value
👉 Per Share = ₹33,000 Cr / 132 Cr shares = ₹250
🎯 Final Fair Value Range (EduInvesting)
₹250 – ₹360
Market is still valuing this like it’s 2021. Reality check overdue unless profitability rebounds fast.
📈 Stock Returns Snapshot
| Duration | CAGR |
|---|---|
| 10-Year | 14% |
| 5-Year | 15% |
| 3-Year | 11% |
| 1-Year | 28% |
📉 Stock is up 28% this year, but mostly due to hopes of recovery
⚠️ Valuation remains disconnected from earnings
⚖️ TL;DR – Pizza Pe Yaakeen, Profit Pe Shaq
✅ Brand moat is strong
✅ QSR sector has tailwinds (young population, delivery boom)
❌ Margins weakening
❌ Debt rising, cash flow thin
❌ P/E > 200 makes no sense unless FY26–27 is a pizza party
🔥 EduInvesting Verdict
Not a scam. Not a fraud. Just… overhyped and overpriced for now.
If they fix margins, Popeyes scales fast, and SSSG rebounds — this could become hot again.
Until then, it’s a gourmet brand stuck in a desi street food valuation crisis.
✍️ Written by Prashant | 📅 18 June 2025
Tags: Jubilant FoodWorks, Domino’s India, QSR stocks, Pizza Stocks, Jubilant Popeyes, Jubilant Fair Value, Jubilant FY25 Results, EduInvesting, Jubilant recap
