✈️ “From Turbulence to Tumbling Shares: Can SpiceJet Make a Comeback or Is It a Flying Mirage?”(An EduInvesting Deep-Dive)

✈️ “From Turbulence to Tumbling Shares: Can SpiceJet Make a Comeback or Is It a Flying Mirage?”(An EduInvesting Deep-Dive)

🧠 At a Glance

SpiceJet’s financials look like their emergency landing record — unpredictable and frequently in red. While it once rivalled IndiGo in India’s low-cost airline race, today it’s burning cash, pledging promoter shares, and magically showing ₹1,452 Cr in “Other Income.” We dug into the black box — and found a flaming balance sheet.


🧳 1. The Business Class Overview (No Frills, Of Course)

  • SpiceJet operates 250+ daily flights with a fleet of Boeing 737s and Q400s
  • It dominates India’s UDAN regional connectivity scheme
  • International routes are operational, but domestic routes are the lifeline
  • Competes with IndiGo (Interglobe), Akasa, Air India, Vistara

🧯 They’ve survived plane fires, leasing defaults, and DGCA bans. But can they survive their own P&L statement?


📉 2. P&L = Pilot & Loss?

Let’s just say SpiceJet’s 5-Year P&L graph would fail a sobriety test. Here’s the rollercoaster:

YearRevenue (₹ Cr)Net Profit (₹ Cr)Operating MarginEPS
FY21₹5,133-₹9983%-₹16.61
FY22₹6,557-₹1,725-14%-₹28.67
FY23₹8,869-₹1,503-12%-₹24.97
FY24₹7,050-₹409-9%-₹5.23
FY25₹5,284₹58-9%₹0.41

🔍 Even the FY25 “profit” of ₹58 Cr is thanks to ₹1,452 Cr in “Other Income” — aka the dahi-tadka on a burnt biryani.


🛠️ 3. Restructuring or Just Window Dressing?

💸 Latest Moves:

  • Converting $121 million lease debt into equity at ₹65/share. Current price? ₹42. 😂
  • Massive dilution: equity base grew from 602 Cr to 1,413 Cr shares in just 2 years.
  • Promoters pledged 42.2% of their stake. Holding dropped from 59% → 33.5%

🎭 SpiceJet isn’t fixing the engine — they’re repainting the plane and hoping no one asks for the DGCA report.


🔥 4. Cash Burn So Hot, It Could Melt Runways

FY25 Cash Flow:

Metric₹ Cr
Cash from Operations-1,665
Cash from Investing-674
Cash from Financing+2,170
Net Cash Flow-170

To put it simply: They’re borrowing from Peter, paying Paul, and issuing shares to both.


🏦 5. Balance Sheet = Balance Sheesh

FY25Amount (₹ Cr)
Total Assets₹9,116 Cr
Borrowings₹4,214 Cr
Negative Reserves-₹730 Cr
Book Value / Share₹4.83
Current Market Price₹42.2 → 8.7x Book 😵

📉 Even after ₹6,000 Cr in equity raised in 2 years, they have negative reserves. It’s like drinking water in a leaky bottle — and calling it hydration.


👀 6. Other Income: The Airline’s Magic Carpet

SpiceJet’s reported “Other Income” over the last 5 years is nearly ₹5,000 Cr.

Guess what? It includes:

  • Aircraft sale leasebacks
  • Insurance claims
  • Writebacks and “settlements”
  • Subsidies from UDAN and others

🎩 So their EPS didn’t fly on engines — it floated on fairy dust.


🤕 7. Red Flags? Or Just The Company Logo?

🚩 Negative operating margin for 5 straight years
🚩 Promoters’ holding down by 25% in 3 years
🚩 42.2% shares pledged
🚩 Debtor days up from 10 → 68
🚩 Interest coverage = low, ROCE = 9%, ROE = undefined
🚩 Stock trades at 8.7x book — for a loss-making company with negative net worth


🧮 8. Fair Value Range: ₹15–₹25

Let’s be generous and assume they turn profitable with ₹500 Cr PAT in future. Assigning a 15x P/E (typical for Indigo):

Fair Value = ₹500 Cr × 15 ÷ 1,413 Cr shares ≈ ₹18/share

You could even argue for ₹25 if aviation turns around. But current price of ₹42? You’re paying first-class fares for a middle-seat with no legroom and no air conditioning.


😂 TL;DR

  • SpiceJet’s stock chart looks like an air crash simulator
  • Profit came from “other income” — not the core flying business
  • Dilution, debt, pledges, and fantasy accounting dominate the skies
  • Fair value looks 40% below CMP even in a bullish scenario

🎫 “Book your ticket carefully — because this airline might not fly much higher.”


✍️ Written by Prashant | 📅 18 June 2025
Tags: SpiceJet, Aviation, Equity Dilution, PSU Bailouts, Pledged Shares, EduInvesting Satire, Stock Valuation

Prashant Marathe

https://eduinvesting.in

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