📌 At a Glance:
NHPC Ltd. posted a strong FY25 with ₹10,379.86 crore in operational revenue and an estimated ₹835 crore net profit. With the stock trading at ₹87.62, and our valuation math showing a fair value of ₹137, this government-backed hydroelectric giant might just be the most boring multibagger on your radar.
🌊 About the Company
NHPC (National Hydroelectric Power Corporation) is India’s premier hydropower development firm, and a Mini Ratna Category-I public sector enterprise.
What do they do?
- Build, own and operate hydroelectric and renewable power plants
- Supply reliable electricity to the grid
- Earn fat returns with minimal capital stress
Think of them as a government-backed ATM hooked up to waterfalls.
👨💼 Key Management
- Chairman & MD: Rajeev Kumar Vishnoi
- Govt Holding: ~70.95% (March 2025)
- Public Shareholding: Widely held, including FIs and retail investors
📊 FY25 Financials (Consolidated)
| Metric | FY25 (₹ Cr) |
|---|---|
| Revenue from Operations | 10,379.86 |
| Other Income | 1,349.45 |
| Total Income | 11,729.31 |
| Profit Before Tax (PBT) | 1,112.98 |
| Estimated Net Profit | 834.74 |
| EPS (100 Cr shares) | ₹8.35 |
📉 Profit is lower YoY due to elevated depreciation and cost pressures — but cash generation remains healthy.
🔮 Forward-Looking Fair Value (FY26)
Assumptions:
- FY26 Profit: ₹918 crore (10% growth YoY)
- Shares: 100 crore
- PE: 15× (conservative for power PSUs)
Fair Value = (₹918 Cr × 15) / 100 Cr = ₹137.73CMP: ₹87.62
🎯 Estimated Upside: +57.2%
⚙️ Why NHPC is Quietly Powerful
✅ High ROE for a PSU: Around 10–12%, very good for infra.
✅ Consistent Dividends: Offers 4–5% yield — no brainer for conservative investors.
✅ Hydropower Focus: Clean, renewable, and capex-light after commissioning.
✅ Capex Cycle Revving Up: Over ₹44,000 Cr worth of projects in pipeline including Subansiri, Dibang, and Teesta-VI.
Also, the government’s increased thrust on clean energy and PSU rerating is a rising tide lifting even slow-moving hydro boats.
🚨 Risks
- Environmental Delays: Hydropower projects often get stuck in forest/wildlife clearance hell.
- Execution Delays: Ongoing projects like Dibang take forever to complete (announced 2008, still going).
- Regulated Tariffs: ROE is capped by the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission — limits supernormal profits.
🧠 EduInvesting Take
NHPC is the ultimate grandpa stock:
- Safe, stable, subsidized.
- Cranks out steady EPS.
- Pays reliable dividends.
- Boring? Yes.
- But profitable? Also yes.
At ₹87.62, it trades at a P/E of ~10.5x — far below even conservative PSU valuations.
If you want to:
- Earn dividends,
- Sleep well at night,
- And possibly see +57% upside in 1–2 years with minimal drama…
You could do worse than plugging into NHPC.
🧾 Final Scorecard
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| CMP | ₹87.62 |
| Fair Value (FY26) | ₹137.73 |
| Estimated Upside | +57.2% |
| EPS (FY25) | ₹8.35 |
| Dividend Yield | ~4.8% |
| Edu Score | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (4.2/5) |
| Ideal Buy Zone | ₹80–90 |
💬 Edu Verdict
Not all power comes with sparks.
NHPC is the kind of PSU that doesn’t move fast — but moves surely. You won’t triple your money overnight, but you’ll sleep soundly and collect cash while the market chases noise.
Verdict: Boring is beautiful. Especially when it pays 5% and climbs 50%.
Want a reel titled “This ₹87 PSU Might Shock You With 50% Gains”? Or a dividend-focused carousel with boring-but-rich vibes? Let me know.
