🧭 At a Glance

Blue Water Logistics Ltd, incorporated in 2010 and listed on NSE Emerge in June 2025, provides freight forwarding and custom clearance services across land, sea, and air. With FY25 sales of ₹196 crore and net profit of ₹11 crore, it’s boasting a ROE of 72% — but promoter holding just plunged 26%. High growth, but how sustainable?

1️⃣ The Journey So Far — Logistics with a Twist of Confectionery

Let’s be honest — when you hear “logistics company”, you imagine container yards, supply chain dashboards, and boring warehouses. But Blue Water is somehow hauling confectionery, crockery, fitness gear, and pharmaceuticals — all in the same trip.

• Founded: 2010
• Listed: NSE Emerge, June 2025
• Headquarters: Hyderabad
• Offices: 6 Indian cities + operations in UAE & Singapore
• Vehicles Owned: 25 (Adding 20 more via IPO)
• Accreditations: FIATA, IATA, ISO 9001:2015, etc.
• IPO Size: ₹30 crore (30 lakh shares)

🧃 Main Cargo Breakdown (FY25):

No surprise Ocean Freight is the cash cow. The rest are just fancy toppings.

2️⃣ Financials: High Tide or Pump & Dump? 🌊💰

📈 Revenue & Profit (₹ Cr)

• Revenue grew 2x in 2 years — impressive.
• OPM has more than doubled — from a wafer-thin 4% to 10%.
• But wait, EPS fell despite higher profits? Answer: share capital jumped from ₹2 Cr to ₹8 Cr. 🥲

🧾 Balance Sheet Bhel

They raised equity via IPO — but also doubled their borrowings. That’s right, more vehicles, more debt.

3️⃣ Shareholding Drama: Promoters Jumping Ship?

In June 2025, the promoter holding fell from 95.65% to 69.55% — that’s a -26.1% drop in a single quarter.

🎭 Why the sudden dilution?

• IPO dilution? ✅
• Exit prep? 🤔
• Need money for vehicle purchases? Probably.

Meanwhile:

• FIIs: 4.73%
• DIIs: 9.36%
• Public: 16.36%

📉 Warning bells: A sudden promoter exit is never “just logistics”.

4️⃣ Metrics That Matter: ROE Ka Overdrive

Yes, Return on Equity is hotter than summer in Hyderabad. But with negative cash flow from operations, will this ship stay afloat?

And that’s not all…

Client concentration = red flag alert:

• Top 1 customer = 22%
• Top 5 = 42%
• Top 10 = 54%

Lose one, and the whole container collapses.

5️⃣ State-Wise Revenue Split: Telangana Zindabaad

If Telangana sneezes, Blue Water gets pneumonia. It’s that concentrated.

6️⃣ SWOT Kaboom 💣

✅ Strengths

• High ROE/ROCE
• Diverse service offerings (Air, Sea, Rail, Road)
• Global certifications (IATA, FIATA, ISO)
• Growing operating margin

❌ Weaknesses

• High client & regional concentration
• Sudden promoter dilution
• Negative operating cash flow
• No dividend, despite profit

🔮 Opportunity

• E-commerce boom
• Export-import tailwinds (PLI, FTAs)
• IPO money = fleet expansion

⚠️ Threats

• Regulatory risk in freight customs
• FX volatility (international ops)
• Customer attrition risk (Top 1 = 22%)

7️⃣ Fair Value Range 🧮

Let’s value this based on two methods:

a) P/E Valuation

• FY25 EPS = ₹13.34
• Reasonable P/E = 15–20x for SME logistics

Fair Value = ₹200 – ₹267

b) EV/EBITDA

• EBITDA ~ ₹19 Cr
• Enterprise Value (assume ₹250 Cr for 13x multiple)

Implied Price per Share (post dilution): ~₹220 – ₹260

🎯 Final FV Range = ₹200 – ₹260

CMP ₹180 — undervalued if growth sustains, but dilution, cash flows, and promoter signals warrant caution.

TL;DR 🚚

• ROE of 72% and OPM of 10% = chef’s kiss
• But sudden promoter exit, cash flow burn, and heavy Telangana dependence? 🚩
• If they deliver on IPO goals (fleet, network, ops), this could be a ₹250 stock.
• But if one client ghosts, this freight may get stuck in customs. Literally.

Tags: Blue Water Logistics, SME IPO, NSE Emerge, Freight Forwarding Stocks, High ROE Stocks, Logistics Industry India, EduInvesting, IPO 2025, SME Stock Analysis, ROCE 40% Stocks