🧠 At a Glance
Lumax Auto Tech has quietly become the dominant player in India’s auto component space with 80% market share in gear shifters and strong global tie-ups. Over the past 5 years, profits have grown 25% CAGR, ROE has crossed 20%, and the stock has done a Fast & Furious 4x rally. But is it still in gear or near the curve?
🏭 1. Business Breakdown: What Does Lumax Actually Do?
- 🔧 Products:
- Gear shifters (mechanical + electronic)
- Plastic molded parts
- Frame chassis
- Integrated interiors, lighting components
- 🚘 Customers: Major OEMs across 2W, 3W, and 4W — think Maruti, Honda, Tata, Mahindra, even global EV entrants.
- 🌍 Global Partnerships:
- Yokowo (Japan)
- JOPP (Germany)
- IAI (Japan)
- It’s not just Tier 1… it’s Tier 1 with global backing.
📊 2. Financials: 5-Year Journey from “Supplier” to “Star Performer”
| ₹ in Crores | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,108 | 1,508 | 1,847 | 2,822 | 3,637 |
| EBITDA | 98 | 151 | 201 | 369 | 465 |
| Net Profit | 51 | 82 | 111 | 167 | 229 |
| ROCE (%) | 13% | 17% | 15% | 18% | 19% |
| ROE (%) | 7% | 10% | 13% | 18% | 21% |
| EPS (₹) | 6.91 | 10.18 | 13.63 | 19.10 | 26.08 |
| Operating Margins | 9% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 13% |
| Borrowings (₹ Cr) | 98 | 165 | 664 | 810 | 902 |
⚠️ Debt Watch: Borrowings jumped 9x between FY22–25. But so did profits. Leverage is being used well, not wastefully.
📈 3. CAGR Snapshot
| Metric | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | 34% | 26% | 29% |
| PAT Growth | 36% | 25% | 37% |
| Stock Price CAGR | 88% | 71% | 108% |
| ROE Expansion | 🔼 7% → 21% |
🔁 This is what compounding with operating leverage looks like.
🧰 4. What’s Driving the Performance?
- 🏎️ Industry tailwinds: Vehicle production up post-COVID
- 🤝 Joint Ventures: Technology flow + increased wallet share per car
- 🧩 Integrated offerings: From gear shifters to dashboards – 1 vendor, many parts
- 🏭 Capex-heavy expansion: New plants for EV-friendly parts, interiors, and electronics
⚠️ But debt needs to be monitored. FY25 net borrowings = ₹902 Cr vs ₹229 Cr PAT
🧾 5. Balance Sheet & Cash Flow
| Metric | FY25 |
|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | ₹290 Cr |
| Investing Outflow | ₹216 Cr |
| Capex (CWIP) | ₹69 Cr |
| Net Cash Flow | ₹21 Cr |
💡 Company is investing aggressively — but not recklessly.
🧠 Debt-to-Equity: Manageable at ~0.9x despite high capex.
🔍 6. Valuation vs Peers
| Company | P/E | ROCE | Rev Growth | PAT Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bosch | 47x | 21% | 16% | -2% |
| Uno Minda | 65x | 19% | 19% | -1% |
| Schaeffler | 61x | 25% | 14% | 16% |
| Endurance Tech | 41x | 18% | 10% | 12% |
| Lumax Auto | 42x | 19% | 29% | 37% |
📢 So why isn’t Lumax valued higher?
- Possibly because:
- Higher debt
- Lower brand recall
- Smaller scale vs global MNC peers
But in terms of numbers — it’s outperforming most peers.
💸 7. Fair Value Estimate (FV Range)
Assumptions:
- FY26 PAT = ₹280–300 Cr
- P/E band = 35x to 42x (sector average)
➡️ Fair Value = ₹9,800 Cr to ₹12,600 Cr
🟢 Current Market Cap = ₹7,400 Cr
🔁 Implies 20–70% upside depending on FY26 growth confidence
🧠 TL;DR — Should You Stay Buckled In?
✅ 5Y PAT CAGR of 25%
✅ Dominant in gear shifters (80% share)
✅ Global tie-ups + diversified auto parts = multiple growth drivers
✅ Stock up 4x in 3 years, but valuations not excessive
⚠️ Debt is rising — needs monitoring
🧠 EduVerdict: This is no penny stock pumped by telegram groups — this is legit Tier 1 compounding story. And it might still be in 4th gear, heading toward 5th.
Tags:
Lumax Auto Tech stock analysis, 5 year recap Lumax, gear shifter market leader, auto ancillary multibagger, DK Jain Group, auto component stocks India, Uno Minda vs Lumax, EduInvesting review
✍️ Written by Prashant | 📅 18 June 2025
