At a Glance
Brainbees Solutions a.k.a. FirstCry may be India’s biggest baby store, but its FY25 numbers are anything but cute. Despite ₹7,660 Cr in revenue, the company posted a ₹265 Cr loss and a measly 3% EBITDA margin. Yet somehow, it’s rocking a ₹17,730 Cr valuation. This is less “profitable unicorn” and more “cash-burning crib.”
1. 📉 Share Price: From IPO Buzz to Diaper Rash
- CMP: ₹340
- 52-Week High/Low: ₹734 / ₹286
- Market Cap: ₹17,730 Cr
- Price to Book: 3.74x
- P/E: 🪦 NA (No Profits, No Party)
After listing at ₹500+, the stock fell faster than a toddler learning to walk. Now 50% down from highs, and still… no earnings in sight.
2. 📊 Revenue & Profit Woes: GMV Up, Profits Down the Drain
| Metric | FY21 | FY23 | FY25 | CAGR (FY21–FY25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹1,603 Cr | ₹5,633 Cr | ₹7,660 Cr | 47% |
| EBITDA | ₹42 Cr | ₹–317 Cr | ₹230 Cr | Volatile AF |
| EBITDA Margin | 3% | –6% | 3% | 🤕 |
| Net Profit | ₹216 Cr | ₹–486 Cr | ₹–265 Cr | 🩻 |
TL;DR: Sales growing nicely. Profits? Not so much. You’re buying growth — not earnings. And you better hope the growth doesn’t stop for potty breaks.
3. 🛒 GMV Flex: ₹9,121 Cr in FY24… But Where’s the Bottomline?
- GMV Growth:
- FY22: ₹5,799 Cr
- FY23: ₹7,258 Cr
- FY24: ₹9,121 Cr
- Revenue as % of GMV: ~84%
- Take Rate = Thin Ice: With OPM stuck at 3%, scale hasn’t yet delivered profitability.
📦 FirstCry’s gross sales might be big, but unless you’re counting diapers sold in dreams, bottomline is still wiping tears.
4. 💸 Cost Control? Still Crying Over Margins
| FY25 Quarterly Snapshot | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₹ Cr) | 1,652 | 1,905 | 2,172 | 1,930 |
| EBITDA (₹ Cr) | 49 | 57 | 108 | 16 |
| OPM (%) | 3% | 3% | 5% | 1% |
| Net Profit (₹ Cr) | –76 | –63 | –15 | –112 |
- Profit in Q3? Yes.
- Profit in Q4? Nahi bhai, back to bleeding.
🧼 Operational improvements can’t clean up a structurally thin-margin business unless unit economics grow up.
5. 🧾 Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
| Item | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from Ops (₹ Cr) | –₹399 | –₹42 | ₹159 |
| Capex (₹ Cr) | ₹–491 | ₹63 | ₹–1,644 |
| Net Debt | ₹906 Cr | ₹1,430 Cr | ₹1,570 Cr |
| Net Cash Flow | ₹–146 | ₹102 | ₹22 |
- Positive CFO in FY25 for the first time? Yes.
- But capex? Blew ₹1,600 Cr, probably on warehouses and kids’ fashion lines.
🛑 Free Cash Flow is still deeply negative. And they just borrowed another ₹1,500 Cr.
6. 🧠 ROE, ROCE & Ratios: Brainbees Needs Brain Gains
- ROCE: –0.40 %
- ROE: –4.07 %
- Inventory Days: 162
- Cash Conversion Cycle: 105 days
😴 A dull ROCE, a loss-making balance sheet, and an e-comm cycle that’s not shortening fast enough.
7. 🚨 Red Flags & Baby Alarms
- 🤒 No profits in 3 years
- 💸 Interest cost up to ₹158 Cr in FY25
- 🏗️ Heavy capex without clarity
- ⚠️ Insolvency case filed against subsidiary Globalbees Brands (₹64.9 Cr claim)
- ❗ No dividend ever
- 🧾 Other income ₹101 Cr — not from ops
🔮 Fair Value Range: What Should This Baby Actually Be Worth?
Let’s assume some growth, but also apply cold wipes of reality.
| Scenario | EV/Sales | Sales (TTM) | Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case | 1.5x | ₹7,660 Cr | ₹11,490 Cr (~₹220/share) |
| Base Case | 2.0x | ₹7,660 Cr | ₹15,320 Cr (~₹295/share) |
| Optimistic Baby | 2.5x | ₹7,660 Cr | ₹19,150 Cr (~₹370/share) |
📉 Current Market Cap = ₹17,730 Cr
🧠 You’re basically paying full future price today, for a business that still doesn’t crawl on its own.
👶 Final Verdict: Cry Me a Valuation
✅ Good:
- Dominant brand in mom & baby category
- Offline expansion + brand loyalty
- Improving ops in Q2 & Q3 FY25
❌ Bad:
- Still loss-making
- Very thin margins
- Ballooning debt
- No clarity on path to net profits
- Subsidiary insolvency case
Unless FirstCry matures faster than Indian toddlers, this looks more like a brand play than an investment play.
Tags: FirstCry, Brainbees, E-Commerce Stocks, FY25 Loss, GMV Growth, EduInvesting, IPO Watch, India Retail Tech
✍️ Written by Prashant | 📅 June 22, 2025
