TCPL Packaging Ltd Q2FY26: When Boxes Make More Sense Than the Market — Revenue ₹461 Cr, PAT ₹29 Cr, OPM 15%, and Chennai Goes Greenfield!

1. At a Glance

TCPL Packaging Ltd – India’s quiet carton king that’s been packaging everything from Parle biscuits to Diageo whisky – has pulled another quarter where cardboard looks smarter than crypto. For Q2FY26, the company clocked consolidated revenue of₹460.5 croreandPAT of ₹28.7 crore, down 21% YoY, because apparently, even boxes catch colds during dull consumption seasons. Yet, theOperating Profit Marginheld steady around 15%, proving that packaging inflation hasn’t yet popped this bubble wrap.

At amarket cap of ₹2,807 croreandcurrent price ₹3,099, TCPL trades at aP/E of 22.5x, neatly packaged between “premium FMCG vendor” and “respectable industrial midcap.” The company boasts anROE of 23.8%andROCE of 20%, numbers that many FMCG giants would proudly laminate. But here’s the twist — while revenue growth flatlined QoQ at -0.18%, TCPL’s Chennai greenfield facility is ramping up faster than Swiggy’s festive ads.

In a sector where cartons, films, and labels are fighting plastic bans, TCPL is wrapping up business in all shapes and sizes. The stock has, however, been a bit like that unopened Amazon return —down 28% in six months, waiting for its next unboxing moment.

2. Introduction

Ah, TCPL Packaging — the company that makes your favorite soap, chips, and whisky look premium before they even touch your hands. It’s the silent artist behind every shiny FMCG shelf you stare at, ensuring that the ₹10 chocolate looks like ₹1000.

Founded in 1987, TCPL began as a humble paperboard printer and today stands asIndia’s largest folding carton manufacturer, and one of the most vertically integrated packaging players in the country. They’ve built a brand by packaging everyone else’s brand — a true Indian middleman success story.

The stock’s journey has been less dramatic than a Netflix thriller — slow, steady, and profitable. Over the lastfive years, profit has grown at 31% CAGR, sales at14% CAGR, and ROE has consistently strutted around 20% like it owns the runway. And if numbers are your love language, anEPS of ₹137and adividend yield of 0.97%should sound like a decent date.

Still, TCPL isn’t all sunshine and glossy paper. The last few quarters have been rougher — rising interest costs, muted FMCG demand, and the eternal packaging material price swings. But management’s focus on flexible packaging, acquisitions (likeCreative Offset Printers Pvt Ltd), and capacity expansion (newChennai plant) hints at long-term compounding power.

3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?

Let’s unwrap this literally — TCPL makesthe wrappers. It manufacturespaperboard cartons, flexible laminates, labels, and specialty packagingthat cover everything from your toothpaste to your whisky bottle. Think of them as the fairy godmother of consumer products — they don’t make the goods, they make them look good.

Their business operates through three broad verticals:

  • Folding Cartons:The company’s bread and butter — think cereal boxes, perfume cartons, and pharma sleeves.
  • Specialty/Gift Packaging:For when your brand wants to look extra fancy (or charge you extra).
  • Flexible Packaging:The shiny packets that hold chips, biscuits, and chewing gum happiness.

Withnine manufacturing unitsspread across India — four in Silvassa, two in Haridwar, and one each in Goa and Guwahati — TCPL has been steadily ramping up. And with thenew greenfield facility in Chennai (March 2025), the company now has a southern stronghold to serve FMCG and liquor clients more efficiently.

Their customer list reads like a who’s who of your pantry and dressing table —HUL, Nestle, Colgate, Dabur, Godrej, ITC, Pernod Ricard, Philip Morris, Britannia, and the list goes on. Basically, if you’ve touched a branded product today, TCPL probably touched it first.

And because India’s love for packaging is only growing (thanks to e-commerce, on-the-go snacking, and aesthetics-driven marketing), TCPL’s addressable market is almost infinite — unless the government bans packaging altogether, which is unlikely unless someone tries to recycle politicians.

4. Financials Overview

Metric (₹ Cr)Latest Qtr (Q2FY26)YoY Qtr (Q2FY25)Prev Qtr (Q1FY26)YoY %QoQ %
Revenue460.5438424.75.1%8.4%
EBITDA69.467713.6%-2.3%
PAT28.73622.3-20.9%28.7%
EPS (₹)31.1339.3524.98-20.9%24.6%

Commentary:Revenue ticked up YoY by 5%, though profit got boxed down 21%.

Margins stayed resilient, but rising depreciation and interest costs are now the main villains. Still, a quarterly EPS of ₹31.13 implies anannualized EPS of ~₹124, putting the stock’sP/E near 25x TTM, right in the “solid midcap compounder” zone.

5. Valuation Discussion – Fair Value Range Only

Let’s try three quick valuation boxes — P/E, EV/EBITDA, and DCF.

P/E Method:

  • Annualized EPS = ₹124
  • Sector P/E = 21.8x
  • TCPL’s current P/E = 22.5x
  • Fair Value Range = ₹2,700 – ₹3,300

EV/EBITDA Method:

  • EV = ₹3,447 Cr
  • EBITDA (FY25) = ₹287 Cr
  • EV/EBITDA = 12x
  • Fair Value Range = ₹3,000 – ₹3,400

DCF (Simplified):Assume 10% growth, 12% cost of equity → Fair range: ₹2,800 – ₹3,400

✅ Fair Value Range:₹2,700 – ₹3,400 (Educational purpose only, not investment advice.)

6. What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, Drama

It’s been a busy packaging party at TCPL.

  • March 2025:Inauguration of thenew Chennai greenfield facilityfor paperboard cartons. Management calls it “strategic,” investors call it “expensive.”
  • May 2025:TCPL acquiredATPL, adding an in-housegravure cylinder facility— the equivalent of building your own Netflix production house. This will enhance vertical integration and reduce outsourcing costs.
  • June 2024:NCLT approved mergerofTCPL Innofilms Pvt Ltd(subsidiary) with TCPL Packaging, simplifying the structure like a KonMari cleanup.
  • Ventit Agreement:Exclusive manufacturing partnership for ventilated pizza box technology — because even pizzas deserve to breathe.
  • Sustainability Goal:Aiming forcarbon neutrality by 2040— giving ESG investors something to Instagram about.

If Chennai ramps up smoothly and flexible packaging margins hold, TCPL could be entering its next growth phase. Unless, of course, carton prices collapse like crypto again.

7. Balance Sheet

Metric (₹ Cr)Mar 2024Mar 2025Sep 2025
Total Assets1,3031,5681,666
Net Worth (Equity + Reserves)530649673
Borrowings484614654
Other Liabilities288305339
Total Liabilities1,3031,5681,666

Sarcastic Notes:

  • Borrowings have grown faster than your salary, up 35% YoY.
  • Net worth also increased — because retained profits are doing the heavy lifting.
  • Balance sheet looks stable, though leverage is like caffeine — keeps it running but risky if overdosed.

8. Cash Flow – Sab Number Game Hai

(₹ Cr)FY23FY24FY25
Operating CF119236140
Investing CF-101-182-157
Financing CF-18-5119
To Read Full 16 Point ArticleBecome a member
Become a member
To Read Full 16 Point ArticleBecome a member

Leave a Comment

error: Content is protected !!