1. At a Glance
TCPL Packaging Ltd – India’s quiet carton king that’s been packaging everything from Parle biscuits to Diageo whisky – has pulled another quarter where cardboard looks smarter than crypto. For Q2FY26, the company clocked consolidated revenue of ₹460.5 crore and PAT of ₹28.7 crore, down 21% YoY, because apparently, even boxes catch colds during dull consumption seasons. Yet, the Operating Profit Margin held steady around 15%, proving that packaging inflation hasn’t yet popped this bubble wrap.
At a market cap of ₹2,807 crore and current price ₹3,099, TCPL trades at a P/E of 22.5x, neatly packaged between “premium FMCG vendor” and “respectable industrial midcap.” The company boasts an ROE of 23.8% and ROCE of 20%, numbers that many FMCG giants would proudly laminate. But here’s the twist — while revenue growth flatlined QoQ at -0.18%, TCPL’s Chennai greenfield facility is ramping up faster than Swiggy’s festive ads.
In a sector where cartons, films, and labels are fighting plastic bans, TCPL is wrapping up business in all shapes and sizes. The stock has, however, been a bit like that unopened Amazon return — down 28% in six months, waiting for its next unboxing moment.
2. Introduction
Ah, TCPL Packaging — the company that makes your favorite soap, chips, and whisky look premium before they even touch your hands. It’s the silent artist behind every shiny FMCG shelf you stare at, ensuring that the ₹10 chocolate looks like ₹1000.
Founded in 1987, TCPL began as a humble paperboard printer and today stands as India’s largest folding carton manufacturer, and one of the most vertically integrated packaging players in the country. They’ve built a brand by packaging everyone else’s brand — a true Indian middleman success story.
The stock’s journey has been less dramatic than a Netflix thriller — slow, steady, and profitable. Over the last five years, profit has grown at 31% CAGR, sales at 14% CAGR, and ROE has consistently strutted around 20% like it owns the runway. And if numbers are your love language, an EPS of ₹137 and a dividend yield of 0.97% should sound like a decent date.
Still, TCPL isn’t all sunshine and glossy paper. The last few quarters have been rougher — rising interest costs, muted FMCG demand, and the eternal packaging material price swings. But management’s focus on flexible packaging, acquisitions (like Creative Offset Printers Pvt Ltd), and capacity expansion (new Chennai plant) hints at long-term compounding power.
3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?
Let’s unwrap this literally — TCPL makes the wrappers. It manufactures paperboard cartons, flexible laminates, labels, and specialty packaging that cover everything from your toothpaste to your whisky bottle. Think of them as the fairy godmother of consumer products — they don’t make the goods, they make them look good.
Their business operates through three broad verticals:
- Folding Cartons: The company’s bread and butter — think cereal boxes, perfume cartons, and pharma sleeves.
- Specialty/Gift Packaging: For when your brand wants to look extra fancy (or charge you extra).
- Flexible Packaging: The shiny packets that hold chips, biscuits, and chewing gum happiness.
With
nine manufacturing units spread across India — four in Silvassa, two in Haridwar, and one each in Goa and Guwahati — TCPL has been steadily ramping up. And with the new greenfield facility in Chennai (March 2025), the company now has a southern stronghold to serve FMCG and liquor clients more efficiently.
Their customer list reads like a who’s who of your pantry and dressing table — HUL, Nestle, Colgate, Dabur, Godrej, ITC, Pernod Ricard, Philip Morris, Britannia, and the list goes on. Basically, if you’ve touched a branded product today, TCPL probably touched it first.
And because India’s love for packaging is only growing (thanks to e-commerce, on-the-go snacking, and aesthetics-driven marketing), TCPL’s addressable market is almost infinite — unless the government bans packaging altogether, which is unlikely unless someone tries to recycle politicians.
4. Financials Overview
| Metric (₹ Cr) | Latest Qtr (Q2FY26) | YoY Qtr (Q2FY25) | Prev Qtr (Q1FY26) | YoY % | QoQ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 460.5 | 438 | 424.7 | 5.1% | 8.4% |
| EBITDA | 69.4 | 67 | 71 | 3.6% | -2.3% |
| PAT | 28.7 | 36 | 22.3 | -20.9% | 28.7% |
| EPS (₹) | 31.13 | 39.35 | 24.98 | -20.9% | 24.6% |
Commentary:
Revenue ticked up YoY by 5%, though profit got boxed down 21%. Margins stayed resilient, but rising depreciation and interest costs are now the main villains. Still, a quarterly EPS of ₹31.13 implies an annualized EPS of ~₹124, putting the stock’s P/E near 25x TTM, right in the “solid midcap compounder” zone.
5. Valuation Discussion – Fair Value Range Only
Let’s try three quick valuation boxes — P/E, EV/EBITDA, and DCF.
P/E Method:
- Annualized EPS = ₹124
- Sector P/E = 21.8x
- TCPL’s current P/E = 22.5x
- Fair Value Range = ₹2,700 – ₹3,300
EV/EBITDA Method:
- EV = ₹3,447 Cr
- EBITDA (FY25) = ₹287 Cr
- EV/EBITDA = 12x
- Fair Value Range = ₹3,000 – ₹3,400
DCF (Simplified):
Assume 10% growth, 12% cost of equity → Fair range: ₹2,800 – ₹3,400
✅ Fair Value Range: ₹2,700 – ₹3,400 (Educational purpose only, not investment advice.)
6. What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, Drama
It’s been a busy packaging party at TCPL.
- March 2025: Inauguration of the new Chennai greenfield facility for paperboard cartons. Management calls it “strategic,” investors call it “expensive.”
- May 2025: TCPL acquired ATPL, adding an in-house gravure
