1. Opening Hook
Sobha just pulled off its best-ever 9-month sales, and the stock… politely yawned.
Why? Because ₹500 crore of profits are literally waiting for Occupancy Certificates to arrive.
Yes, in Indian real estate, paperwork still decides EBITDA.
Q3 FY26 was peak Sobha energy: record bookings, record Bangalore sales, debut in Mumbai, and cash flows flexing hard.
But the P&L? Looks like it missed the party.
Management says this is just “procedural delay.”
Investors hear: “Come back next quarter.”
Margins are low today, but management is confidently talking 30%+ project margins sitting unrecognized.
If even half of that flows through, this stock’s narrative flips fast.
Read on — because the real drama is not in sales, but when Sobha gets paid on the P&L.
2. At a Glance
- 9M Sales ₹6,097 Cr – Sobha broke its own record, then broke it again.
- Q3 Sales ₹2,115 Cr – Best quarter ever, Bangalore did most of the heavy lifting.
- Avg price ₹14,500/sqft – Inflation-proof luxury, apparently.
- Operating cash flow ₹1,270 Cr (9M) – Cash came home, profits stayed outside.
- PAT ₹15 Cr (Q3) – Great sales, tiny bottom line… OC delays say hello.
- Net cash company – ₹1,790 Cr cash vs ₹997 Cr debt.
- Balance sheet behaving.
3. Management’s Key Commentary (Decoded)
“₹6,097 Cr sales in 9 months, an all-time high.”
(Demand isn’t slowing — headlines are. 😏)
“₹500 Cr revenue couldn’t be recognized due to OC delays.”
(Profits are ready, paperwork isn’t.)
“Unrecognized revenue stands at ₹18,600 Cr.”
(That’s a full mid-cap hiding off the P&L.)
“Blended project margin is ~30%.”
(Future margins look nothing like current margins.)
“Next 12–15 month projects will deliver 18–19% margins.”
(Margin expansion is queued, not cancelled.)
“Beyond 15 months, margins rise to ~34%.”
(Patience may actually pay here.)
“We remain net debt negative.”
(Cycle turns? Sobha sleeps fine.)
4. Numbers Decoded
| Metric | Q3 FY26 | What It Really Means |
|---|---|---|
| Sales bookings | ₹2,115 Cr | Demand on fire |
| Revenue recognized | ₹983 Cr | Accounting stuck |
| EBITDA | ₹78 Cr | Temporarily depressed |
| PAT | ₹15 Cr | Not the real earning power |
| Cash balance | ₹1,790 Cr | Dry powder loaded |
| Unrecognized revenue | ₹18,600 Cr | Future P&L pipeline |
