1. At a Glance
Goodluck India Ltd is not here to make pretty, shiny steel utensils. It’s the engineering kid in the metals family — building railway bridges, defence forgings, and automotive tubes — and doing it profitably. FY25 revenue: ₹4,006 Cr, PAT: ₹170 Cr, OPM ~8%, ROCE 15%. The company has compounded profits at 37% CAGR over 5 years, but with a promoter stake that’s slid from 61.5% (Sep 2022) to 56.4% (Jun 2025). At ₹1,020/share and a P/E of ~20, the stock is valued like an industrial midcap with enough swagger to announce a billion-dollar goal in its latest press release.
2. Introduction
Goodluck India is a reminder that in the steel world, it’s not always about raw tonnage — it’s about where that steel ends up. And here, it ends up in Indian Railways girders, defence aerospace forgings, high-end automotive tubes, and massive infrastructure projects. Over the past decade, the company has evolved from a plain vanilla steel products manufacturer into a diversified engineering player.
In the past 3 years, sales CAGR is 15% and profits have grown 30% annually. This is not a commodity cycle fluke — the mix has shifted towards higher value segments. However, margin volatility remains, and debt has risen to ₹882 Cr in FY25, likely funding both expansion and working capital for mega-project deliveries.
3. Business Model (WTF Do They Even Do?)
Goodluck operates across four key verticals:
- Engineering Structures & Fabrication – Railway bridges, road girders, turbine structures, and industrial infrastructure.
- Forgings – Defence and
- aerospace parts, oil & gas equipment, flanges, shafts.
- Precision Pipes & Auto Tubes – CDW/ERW tubes for automakers like BMW, Mercedes, Tata Motors.
- CR Sheets & Pipes – Cold rolled coils, corrugated sheets, hollow sections for OEMs and government infrastructure.
Clients range from Indian Railways and ISRO to Tata Motors and BHEL — meaning the company’s steel is in everything from nuclear plants to hatchbacks.
4. Financials Overview
Fresh P/E Calculation:
- Q4 FY25 EPS = ₹12.00 → Annualised = ₹48.00
- CMP ₹1,020 → Fresh P/E ≈ 21.25 (close to reported 20.07).
FY25 Performance:
- Revenue: ₹4,006 Cr (+1.8% YoY)
- EBITDA: ₹328 Cr (+5.4% YoY)
- PAT: ₹170 Cr (+2.4% YoY)
- OPM: 8%
Commentary: Revenue growth is flattish, but margins have inched up — a sign that higher-value segments are contributing more.
5. Valuation
Method 1 – P/E Based:
Historic band: 8–25x.
Based on FY25 EPS ₹51.43:
- Lower band (12x): ₹617
- Upper band (25x): ₹1,286
Method 2 – EV/EBITDA:
FY25 EBITDA = ₹328 Cr; Debt = ₹882 Cr; Cash negligible; EV ≈ ₹4,274 Cr
