📌 At a Glance
Dabur India’s share price has flatlined around ₹490 despite being one of India’s most iconic FMCG names. Over the last 5 years (FY21 to FY25), revenue climbed from ₹9,562 Cr to ₹12,563 Cr — just a 31% rise, or 5.6% CAGR. Meanwhile, profit barely moved from ₹1,695 Cr to ₹1,740 Cr. The stock’s P/E still hovers near 50, and working capital days exploded to 61. So… is Dabur still the king of Ayurveda? Or just drinking its own Chyawanprash?
🧬 About the Company
- Dabur India Ltd, founded in 1884, is one of the oldest FMCG companies in India.
- It’s the largest Ayurvedic and Natural Healthcare brand globally, with 250+ products in categories like health supplements, personal care, oral care, and home care.
- Its top brands include Dabur Chyawanprash, Dabur Honey, Real Juices, and Vatika.
👨💼 Key Managerial Personnel (KMP)
| Name | Designation |
|---|---|
| Mohit Malhotra | CEO & Whole Time Director |
| Amit Burman | Chairman |
| Sudhanshu Vats | CEO, Dabur International |
| Ashok Jain | CFO |
CEO Mohit Malhotra has been steering the company through a slow-growth FMCG era, with an emphasis on premiumization and rural push.
📊 5-Year Financial Recap (FY21–FY25)
| Financial Year | Revenue (₹ Cr) | Net Profit (₹ Cr) | EPS (₹) | OPM % | ROCE % | Dividend Payout % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY21 | 9,562 | 1,695 | 9.58 | 21% | 27% | 50% |
| FY22 | 10,889 | 1,742 | 9.84 | 21% | 27% | 53% |
| FY23 | 11,530 | 1,701 | 9.64 | 19% | 23% | 54% |
| FY24 | 12,404 | 1,811 | 10.40 | 19% | 22% | 53% |
| FY25 | 12,563 | 1,740 | 9.97 | 18% | 20% | 80% |
➡️ Revenue up 31% in 5 years.
➡️ Net profit barely up 2.6% over 5 years.
➡️ ROCE declining, Dividend payout shooting up (sign of slowdown?).
📉 Margin Compression & Cash Flow Woes
- Operating margins slipped from 21% to 18%.
- ROCE dropped from a healthy 27% to 20% in FY25.
- Cash conversion cycle went from 3 days to negative 4 days, but working capital days spiked to 61 — a red flag.
- Net Cash Flow in FY25 was just ₹132 Cr — a far cry from past comfort zones.
🔍 Peer Comparison (as of June 2025)
| Company | CMP ₹ | P/E | ROCE % | Dividend Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Godrej Consumer | 1,214 | 65.5 | 19.4% | 1.24% |
| Colgate-Palmolive | 2,450 | 46.4 | 105.4% | 2.08% |
| P&G Hygiene | 13,505 | 61.1 | 112.4% | 1.44% |
| Dabur India | 490 | 49.9 | 20.3% | 1.63% |
Dabur looks expensive for its growth rate. The peers deliver better margins or stronger growth — or both.
📈 Forward-Looking Fair Value Estimate (2026–2028)
Assuming:
- Revenue CAGR of 6–8%
- PAT CAGR of 5%
- Stable OPM at 18–19%
- P/E contraction to historical median of 35–40x
👉 Fair Value Estimate (24-month range): ₹375 – ₹440
(Current CMP: ₹490 — Premium to fair value)
🧠 EduInvesting Take
“Dabur is like that uncle who still tells you about how good the 90s were — yes, it’s nostalgic and safe… but where’s the new energy?”
Despite its heritage and brand recall, growth has stalled. The management is pushing acquisitions (e.g., Sesa Care), but even that seems like a defensive play. ROCE is down, margins are thinning, and profits are flat.
And let’s be honest — if the best story in your investor presentation is “our dividend payout is now 80%”, you’ve run out of stories.
🚩 Risks & Red Flags
- 📉 Declining ROCE and OPM
- 🐌 Sluggish rural recovery dragging volume growth
- 🌍 Overreliance on international expansion via Dabur International
- 📦 Inventory bloating despite weak sales growth
- 🧪 Ayurvedic portfolio losing novelty amidst D2C disruptors (Mamaearth, Baidyanath)
🧪 Outlook & Strategy
- Dabur is trying to pivot via premiumization, e-commerce, and urban push, but competitors are faster.
- They’ve integrated AI in marketing and supply chain digitization — which is great, but not a gamechanger yet.
- Middle-class belt tightening post-COVID and rising inflation has hurt discretionary FMCG demand.
🧾 Verdict
✅ Strong brand moat
✅ Debt-free + consistent dividends
❌ Flat profit, declining ROCE
❌ Valuation premium not justified by growth
Dabur may still be a fridge stock — but right now, it’s cooling off.
Author: Prashant Marathe
Date: 11 June 2025
Tags: Dabur share price, FMCG stocks India, Dabur India analysis, dividend stocks, Ayurveda stocks, Dabur FY25 results, 5-year stock recap
