1. At a Glance
Confidence Petroleum India Ltd (CPIL) has always lived up to its name — the “Confidence” part. Whether it’s importing butane like a Gulf trader, manufacturing LPG cylinders like there’s no tomorrow, or opening CNG stations in Bengaluru faster than traffic lights change — CPIL does everything with swag.
As ofQ2 FY26, the company reported consolidatedrevenue of ₹983 crore, up31.8% YoY, whilePAT stood at ₹20.3 crore, up14.6% YoY. But that’s not the only number burning hot — the company’sdebt ballooned to ₹830 crore, andGST authorities slapped a demand notice of ₹233.84 crore. Because why settle for growth without a little drama?
At amarket cap of ₹1,319 croreand aP/E of 14x, the stock trades at just0.96x book value. TheROEat 7.24% andROCEat 9.33% scream “operationally alive but financially wheezing.” Yet, it remains India’s largest private LPG bottler, running68+ bottling plants,287 Auto LPG stations, and690 tankerszooming across highways.
In short: Confidence Petroleum is the small-town cousin of the oil giants — hustling harder, sweating more, and occasionally explaining itself to the tax department.
2. Introduction
If you’ve ever wondered who fills those shiny GoGas cylinders seen in the corners of dhabas or near highway motels, meetConfidence Petroleum India Ltd, the desi multitasker of the LPG world. It bottles, markets, manufactures, imports, dispenses, retails, and occasionally — gets raided.
Founded by the Khara family, this Nagpur-based gas conglomerate has built an empire out of combustion. What Reliance is to petrochemicals, CPIL wants to be for LPG. But while Reliance operates from glass towers, CPIL’s empire is built from steel cylinders, soot, and good old jugaad.
Over the years, CPIL has expanded across two primary divisions —LPG (88% of revenue)andCylinder Manufacturing (12%). And within that, it’s spread thin — frombulk industrial LPG importstoretail Auto LPG stations, and evenhigh-pressure composite cylindersfor green hydrogen.
The last few years have been a rollercoaster. Revenue has grown from ₹2,698 crore in FY24 to ₹3,717 crore in FY25 — a solid22% growth, with PAT steady around ₹94 crore. But the stock has nosedived41% over the past year, proving once again that the market doesn’t clap for “steady” when it’s expecting “spectacular.”
Still, CPIL’s journey from a small cylinder fabricator to a ₹3,700 crore turnover company is impressive. It’s a bit like watching a Maruti 800 overtake a BMW in first gear — noisy, unpredictable, but oddly satisfying.
3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?
So what exactly does Confidence Petroleum do, apart from getting into every LPG-related business possible?
At its core, CPIL isIndia’s biggest private LPG bottler. Think of it as the neighborhood gas station chain, except it bottles the gas, sells it, and sometimes even makes the bottles.
Let’s decode the madness:
- LPG Division (88% of revenue)a)Bulk Marketing:They import LPG, propane, and butane directly from the Middle East. Then sell it to industries that can’t survive without fire — like steel, glass, ceramics, and food processing. In short, CPIL is the Tinder between Middle Eastern gas producers and Indian industrial burners. b)Auto LPG:Under the “GoGas” brand, they run287 Auto LPG Dispensing Stations (ALDS). So if you’ve ever filled your car at a small roadside station with a bright green GoGas board, that’s them. c)Bottling:They own68+ LPG bottling plants, not just for themselves but also as outsourced bottlers for IOCL, BPCL, and HPCL. Basically, they’re the backup singers in the PSU gas concert.
- Cylinder Division (12% of revenue)They make LPG cylinders — both household and industrial ones.15 LPG cylinder plants and 3 high-pressure cylinder unitskeep the steel rolling. They’ve also enteredCNG retailthrough a partnership withGAIL Gas, where they’re setting up100 stations in Bangalore (45 done so far). And just to stay trendy, they’re buildingcarbon composite Type-4 cylindersfor hydrogen and nitrogen — because “decarbonization” sounds good in investor decks.
In short: If it involves gas, Confidence Petroleum is doing it. The only thing missing is a reality show calledKeeping Up with the Kharas.
4. Financials Overview
| Metric | Latest Qtr (Q2 FY26) | YoY Qtr (Q2 FY25) | Prev Qtr (Q1 FY26) | YoY % | QoQ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₹ Cr) | 983 | 746 | 1,112 | 31.8% | -11.6% |
| EBITDA (₹ Cr) | 82 | 78 | 83 | 5.1% | -1.2% |
| PAT (₹ Cr) | 20.3 | 17.7 | 20.0 | 14.6% | 1.5% |
| EPS (₹) | 0.61 | 0.53 | 0.61 | 15.1% | 0% |
Annualized EPS = ₹0.61 × 4 = ₹2.44At CMP ₹39.7,P/E = 16.3x— a touch higher than screener’s 14x due to rounding, but still modest compared toindustry P/E of 21x.
Commentary:Revenue grew sharply YoY but slipped QoQ — the “festival season” didn’t light up the cylinders as expected. Margins cooled to 8% OPM from 10% last year. PAT’s 14% growth is decent, but the stock acts like it just lost a gas connection.
5. Valuation Discussion – Fair Value Range (Educational Only)
Method 1: P/E Multiple
- FY25 EPS = ₹2.83
- Peer median P/E (Adani Gas, Gujarat Gas, MGL, Petronet LNG) ≈ 21x
- Applying a conservative 12x–18x band for CPIL (smallcap discount)→ Fair Value = ₹2.83 × (12 to 18) =₹34 to ₹51 per share
Method 2: EV/EBITDA
- EV = ₹2,028 Cr, EBITDA (FY25) = ₹337 Cr → EV/EBITDA = 6.0xPeers trade 10–12x.→ Fair Value (at 8–10x) = (8 × 337 – Debt 830) / Shares ≈ ₹43–₹55
Method 3: Simplified DCF (educational)Assume 10% annual FCF growth for 5 years from ₹10 Cr base (FY25), discount at 12%.→ Intrinsic range ≈ ₹40–₹50
Fair Value Range (Educational): ₹40 – ₹55 per shareThis fair value range is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.
6. What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, Drama
If you think gas is volatile, wait till you hear CPIL’s latest updates:
- DGGI GST Demand (₹233.84 Cr)– The company received a tax demand notice for alleged GST issues. Because in India, the government doesn’t just collect tax, itcollects vibes.
- Income Tax Search and Seizure (Oct 2025)– IT officials paid an uninvited visit to CPIL’s offices and promoter homes. The Kharas probably wish they’d stuck to bottling gas, not paperwork.
- Preferential Issue of ₹250 Cr (Mar 2025)– Of which ₹176.56 Cr is already used and ₹73.55 Cr remains unutilized (extended till Feb 2026). That’s CFO-speak for “we’re still deciding where to burn it.”
- CNG Expansion– 50 CNG stations operational in Bangalore, targeting 100. In a city where traffic moves slower than inflation, that’s decent progress.
- Bottling Contracts with PSU Oil Giants (₹42 Cr)– New contracts with HPCL, BPCL,
