1) At a Glance
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) walks into Q3 FY26 with the confidence of a PSU that knows crude cycles better than your neighbourhood petrol pump uncle. Market cap around ₹1.51 lakh crore, stock near ₹349, three-month return ~5.7%, dividend yield ~2.9%, ROCE ~16%, ROE ~17%. The headline? Q3 consolidated PAT ~₹7,188 crore, up nearly 90% YoY, on ₹1.19 lakh crore of quarterly sales. Valuation screens flash P/E ~6x and EV/EBITDA ~4.3x, which in PSU-land is the equivalent of wearing Ray-Bans indoors. The balance sheet is still heavy with pipes, tanks, and capex dreams, but cash generation keeps the lights on. Question for you: is this still a sleepy refiner, or a cash-gushing integrated energy behemoth quietly flexing?
2) Introduction
BPCL is that old-school heavyweight who shows up to the gym in plain track pants and still lifts more than the influencers. Refining + marketing is the core, but the story is broader: retail outlets everywhere, LPG cylinders in millions of kitchens, aviation fuel at busy airports, lubricants with a cult following, gas distribution footprints, and upstream exploration via subsidiaries. Add periodic policy drama, disinvestment headlines that came and went, and chunky dividends—and you get a stock that refuses to be boring.
Q3 FY26 landed with quarterly results (lock this—EPS treatment below follows quarterly rules). Margins firmed, profits surprised, and the market nodded politely. But cycles matter. Crack spreads move. Subsidies whisper. Capex shouts. So let’s open the hood and see what’s actually happening—numbers first, jokes later.
3) Business Model — WTF Do They Even Do?
BPCL buys crude, refines it across ~35.3 MMTPA capacity (Mumbai,
Kochi, Bina), and sells fuels to India’s moving, flying, cooking, and manufacturing economy.
- Retail fuels: ~20,000 outlets, ~26% market share.
- LPG: ~9 crore customers, ~27% share, 54 bottling plants.
- Aviation: 56 stations, ~21% ATF share.
- Lubricants: MAK brand, ~25% share.
- Gas & CGD: via subsidiaries and JVs across multiple geographies.
- Upstream: exploration interests in India and overseas.
It’s vertical integration with a PSU accent: scale, reach, policy exposure, and steady cash flows—plus the occasional capex hangover.
4) Financials Overview (Quarterly, Locked)
- Q1 FY26 EPS (Jun 2025): ₹15.76
- Q2 FY26 EPS (Sep 2025): ₹14.27
- Q3 FY26 EPS (Dec 2025): ₹16.57
- Average = ₹15.53 → Annualised EPS ≈ ₹62.12
Q3 FY26 Performance Snapshot (₹ crore)
| Metric | Latest Qtr (Dec’25) | YoY Qtr (Dec’24) | Prev Qtr (Sep’25) | YoY % | QoQ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 119,029 | 113,166 | 104,946 | ~5.2% | ~13.4% |
| EBITDA | 11,687 | 7,456 | 9,761 | ~56.7% | ~19.7% |
| PAT | 7,188 | 3,806 | 6,191 | ~89.9% | ~16.1% |
| EPS (₹) | 16.57 | 8.77 | 14.27 | ~89.0% | ~16.1% |
Commentary: Revenues inched up; profits sprinted. That’s operating leverage doing bhangra when margins cooperate. Question: how much of this is sustainable versus cyclical generosity?
5) Valuation Discussion — Fair Value Range Only
Method 1: P/E
- Annualised EPS ≈ ₹62.12
- Conservative PSU multiple band: 6x–9x
- Implied range: ₹373 – ₹559
Method 2: EV/EBITDA
- EV
