01 — At a Glance
The Forging Company That NATO Noticed
- 52-Week High / Low₹784 / ₹341
- TTM Revenue₹1,113 Cr
- TTM PAT₹256 Cr
- TTM EPS₹22.62
- Annualised EPS (Q3×4)₹24.72
- Book Value₹109
- Price to Book3.97x
- Debt / Equity0.07x
- Return 3M-30.4%
- Return 1Y+1.67%
Reality Check: Balu Forge posted ₹311 crore revenue in Q3 FY26 — up 21.6% YoY. PAT of ₹71.1 crore, up 20.5% YoY. Nine-month revenue of ₹844 crore. But somehow the stock crashed 30% in three months. Why? Because the market hates forward-looking clarity and loves speculative nonsense. This is that exact situation.
02 — Introduction
From Crankshaft to Cannon. A Normal Tuesday for Jaspal Singh Chandock.
Balu Forge Industries is not a household name. Your neighbour doesn’t wake up thinking about forged crankshafts. Your wife didn’t invest a lakh because of their P&L margins. The company makes metal things that go into other metal things, and those metal things make sure cars, tractors, trains, helicopters, and apparently now artillery pieces don’t self-destruct on the highway.
But something weird is happening. A company that spent 2023–2024 quietly establishing itself as a serious global parts supplier has suddenly decided 2025–2026 is the year to show up on the geopolitical radar. January 29, 2026: NATO induction. Translation: Indian military-approved forged components for artillery. NATO supply chain. Defence sector approvals for 180+ products. An emerging market defense contractor, basically.
And the stock crashed 30%. Because apparently, NATO contracts and explosive revenue growth are somehow “priced in.” Let’s unpack this absurdity with math, humour, and genuine bewilderment about what the market is actually thinking.
Founder’s Vibe Check (Feb 2026 Concall): Jaspal Singh Chandock spent 30+ years in forgings. Company expanded capacity from 18,000 MTPA to 32,000 MTPA mid-year. Now commissioning a 72,000 MTPA facility in Belgaum. That’s not a gradual rollout. That’s a “we have never been more confident” capex spree. And yet the stock fell 30%.
03 — Business Model: WTF Do They Even Make?
Metal Things. Forged. Under Pressure. Repeatedly.
Balu Forge takes steel or aluminum, heats it to 900+ degrees, hammers it into specific shapes using a 16-ton hydraulic hammer (yes, really), and ships it globally. The result: crankshafts (the heart of any piston engine), railway wheels, transmission parts, defense components, and the newest addition — artillery shell bodies. All 100% Made in India. All approved by OEMs who actually care about not exploding.
The company serves 25+ global OEMs across 80+ countries. That’s not a startup fantasy. That’s decades of Jaspal Singh Chandock showing up with parts on time, within spec, and without catching fire in transit. Volkswagen, BMW, Audi all use Balu components. So do Indian defence contractors. So does NATO now, apparently.
Revenue mix (H1 FY26): Agriculture 45%, Power 15%, Heavy Engineering 12%, Commercial Vehicles 10%, Defence 7%, Others 11%. The company is not a one-product wonder. It’s a diversified supplier in a dozen growth segments. And management is doubling down on defence and aerospace.
Forging Capacity45,000 MTPABelgaum Setup
Machining Capacity32,000 MTPAExpanded FY25
OEMs Served25+Global Tier-1
Countries80+Export Coverage
From Concall, Feb 2026: “We are commissioning a 155mm shell line at Belgaum. 360,000 shells per annum capacity. 100% Make-in-India. This is the future of defense manufacturing in India.” — Jaspal Singh. Translation: A ₹5,261 crore market-cap company just became a contender in India’s artillery ammunition ecosystem.
💬 Is a NATO supply chain induction for an Indian company a moonshot, or just the natural progression of quality manufacturing? Drop your thoughts.
04 — Financials Overview
Q3 FY26: The Numbers That The Market Apparently Ignored
Result type: Quarterly Results | Q3 FY26 EPS: ₹6.18 | Annualised EPS (Q3×4): ₹24.72 | TTM EPS: ₹22.62
| Metric (₹ Mn) |
Q3 FY26
Dec 2025 |
Q3 FY25
Dec 2024 |
Q2 FY26
Sep 2025 |
YoY % |
QoQ % |
| Revenue | 3,111 | 2,562 | 3,004 | +21.6% | +3.6% |
| Operating Profit | 850 | 677 | 834 | +25.5% | +1.9% |
| OPM % | 27% | 26% | 28% | +100 bps | -100 bps |
| PAT | 711 | 590 | 654 | +20.5% | +8.7% |
| EPS (₹) | 6.18 | 5.10 | 5.71 | +21.2% | +8.2% |
Annualised P/E Reality: CMP ₹433 ÷ Annualised EPS ₹24.72 = P/E of 17.5x. Industry median P/E is 22.9x. Balu is trading at a 24% discount to peers despite having ROCE of 31.3% (vs. peers at ~20%). This is not valuation. This is a gift card waiting to be cashed.
05 — Valuation Discussion: Fair Value Range
What’s This Forging Behemoth Actually Worth?
