01 — At a Glance
The Company That Turns Power Plant Garbage Into Cash. Seriously.
- 52-Week High / Low₹534 / ₹190
- Q3 FY26 Revenue₹576 Cr
- Q3 FY26 PAT₹52.71 Cr
- TTM EPS₹12.21
- Annualised EPS (Q3 × 4)₹15.72
- Book Value / Share₹92.0
- Price to Book2.18x
- Order Book (Ash Handling)₹1,500 Cr
- Order Book (Wind)₹1,860 Cr
- Daily Ash Handling Cap72,000 MT
Flash Summary: Refex just reported Q3 FY26 PAT of ₹52.71 crore — up 7.09% YoY despite monsoon drama in H1. Revenue stood at ₹576 crore (Q3) after dumping low-margin coal and power trading. P/E is 14.6x, down from a 52-week high of ₹534. The stock crashed 62% from peak because investors got spooked by IT raids, promoter pledges, and management’s admission that they’ve been losing money on deliberate business exits. But here’s the thing: the order book is ₹3,360 crore combined. Wind business is about to start revenue. Green Mobility is demerging to unlock value. And ash-handling capacity is being scaled from 72,000 to 100,000+ MT daily. Nobody’s paying attention. Yet.
02 — Introduction
What Happens When You Hire A Company to Take Out Your Trash — and They Build an Empire
Coal power plants produce roughly 50 million tons of ash every year in India. This ash needs to be: (a) excavated from massive ponds, (b) crushed if needed, (c) loaded into trucks, (d) transported, (e) either sold as cement filler or dumped responsibly. For decades, this was considered glorified garbage work. Refex saw ₹50,000+ crore hiding in that trash pile.
Founded in 2002 by Anil Jain, Refex started in refrigerant gas trading. Then in 2018, they pivoted into ash handling. By FY25, ash and coal handling became 93% of revenue. They manage 50,000 MT of ash daily. They operate 800+ vehicles. They have a ₹1,500 crore order book in ash handling alone, with 40% executable in the next four months.
Then there’s their wind turbine subsidiary, Venwind. ₹1,860 crore order book. First deliveries starting February 2026. Management claims 5.2 MW turbines with LIDAR guidance — supposedly a first in India. Customers include Jindal Steel, Torrent Pharma, KP Green. These are not companies that gamble on novice suppliers.
Q3 was the inflection point: monsoon normalized, execution ramped, and margins recovered. But the stock collapsed 62% from peak because of (a) income tax raids in December 2025, (b) promoter pledge reaching 41.34%, and (c) SEBI fining the promoter ₹10 lakh for insider trading. The market panicked. The company kept executing. Classic Indian market moment.
From the Concall (Jan 2026): Management described Q3 as “a very strong sequential recovery” after “extended monsoon impact during the first half”. They’re betting monsoons are normalized, execution cadence is locked, and the two order books (ash ₹1,500 Cr + wind ₹1,860 Cr) will drive 2-3 year revenue visibility. ACUITE reaffirmed ratings A- | Stable and A2+ | Stable across all facilities in March 2026.
03 — Business Model: How They Convinced Everyone Their Garbage Business Is Genius
Three Money Engines (That Aren’t Garbage, Despite What Your Mom Says)
Refex operates four core verticals, but earnings are now dominated by two: ash handling and wind turbine supply.
Ash & Coal Handling (93% of Q1 FY25 revenue): They provide end-to-end management of fly ash from thermal power plants. The model has shifted from simple disposal to comprehensive O&M (operations & maintenance) contracts lasting 3–10 years. This means: (1) longer revenue visibility, (2) better pricing power, (3) lower churn. They handle ash excavation, transportation via their own 800+ vehicle fleet, crushing if needed, and final disposal/utilization. Current daily capacity: 72,000 MT. Target: 100,000+ MT. No major constraints — scaling is mostly manpower + fleet additions.
Venwind — Wind Turbine Supply (New Revenue Driver): They’re supply-only OEM-assemblers of 5.2 MW turbines. Zero EPC (engineering, procurement, construction) work. Orders from marquee names (Jindal, Torrent, KP Green). ₹1,860 crore order book starting deliveries February 2026. Warranty: 12 months; 5-year uptime guarantee. They pay a 0.25–0.5% royalty to Vensys Energy (tech partner) post-year three. Margins are being framed as “very decent” and “competitive” — translation: they’re aiming for 8–12% when fully ramped.
Refex Green Mobility (Demerging): EV fleet for corporate mobility. 530+ vehicles as of Q1 FY25. Expanding to B2B employee transport and rent-a-car. Demerging by April 2026 to unlock value as a separate listed entity. Current net assets transferring: ~₹220 crore.
Refrigerant Gases & Coal Trading (Being Exited): 4% and declining. Management explicitly stated: “We are not doing any EPC work or installations work” in wind. And they’re exiting coal trading “to a drastic extent.” These were low-margin, distracting lines. Cutting them explains the 15% revenue decline in FY24 despite volume growth — it was a deliberate de-emphasis.
Management’s framing on the concall is surgical: “We are moving from partial scopes to end-to-end comprehensive ash management.” Translate: longer-term contracts = stickier revenue = better pricing. They’re not racing to maximize topline; they’re optimizing for EBITDA quality. That’s the kind of discipline that usually appears only after a painful lesson.
04 — Financials Overview: The Numbers Were Never Pretty Until Now
Q3 FY26: The Rebound, The Realignment, and The Roasting From Monsoons
Result type: Quarterly Results (Consolidated) | Q3 FY26 EPS: ₹3.93 | Annualised EPS (Q3×4): ₹15.72 | TTM EPS: ₹12.21
| Metric (₹ Cr) |
Q3 FY26
Dec 2025 |
Q3 FY25
Dec 2024 |
Q2 FY26
Sep 2025 |
YoY % |
QoQ % |
| Revenue | 576 | 686 | 415 | -16.0% | +38.8% |
| Operating Profit (EBIT) | 90 | 53 | 71 | +69.8% | +26.8% |
| OPM % | 16% | 8% | 17% | +800 bps | -100 bps |
| PAT | 52.71 | 49.19 | 36.16 | +7.09% | +45.8% |
| EPS (₹) | 3.93 | 3.88 | 2.90 | +1.29% | +35.5% |
The Monsoon Trap: Q3 showed 38.8% QoQ revenue growth because Q2 was an ash-handling disaster. July-September had “extended monsoon impact” — translation: muddy sites, no access to ash ponds, trucks stuck, zero work possible. Management called it honestly on the concall. FY24 revenue declined 15% YoY because they were still carrying low-margin coal/power trading business. YoY comparison (Q3 FY26 vs Q3 FY25) shows 16% revenue decline because Q3 FY25 had the last of the coal/power trading revenue (they’ve since exited). But EBIT is up 69.8% YoY — margins improved because of exit from junk business. The P&L is cleaner than it looks.
💬 Management deliberately exited ₹150–200 crore in low-margin business lines, which explains the revenue fall but improved margins. How many investors actually read the fine print, or do they just panic-sell at -40%? Drop your own “I panic-sold” stories in the comments.
05 — Valuation: The Math That Investors Are Ignoring
Fair Value Range: ₹240 – ₹360. (Yes, Higher Than Current Price.)
Method 1: P/E Based
TTM EPS = ₹12.21. Industry median P/E for diversified industrial services ≈ 16–18x. Refex’s ROCE of 20.9% justifies a premium to sector. Justified P/E band: 12x–16x (for a company managing ₹3,360 Cr in live order books).
→ 12x × ₹12.21 = ₹146.52 16x × ₹12.21 = ₹195.36
Range: ₹146 – ₹195
Method 2: EV/EBITDA (Annualized Basis)
TTM EBITDA ≈ ₹262 Cr (based on operating profit trajectory). Enterprise Value = Market Cap (₹2,750 Cr) + Net Debt (~₹174 Cr debt – ₹281 Cr cash = negative debt). EV ≈ ₹2,470 Cr. Current EV/EBITDA ≈ 9.4x. For a company with 20.9% ROCE and 3-year order book visibility, 9–12x EV/EBITDA is reasonable. Upside at 12x EV/EBITDA ≈ ₹314 Cr EV → implied share price ₹245 (adjusting for net cash position).
Range: ₹215 – ₹280
Method 3: Price-to-Book Value
Book Value = ₹92. Current P/BV = 2.18x. For a company with 18.9% ROE, healthy balance sheet (gearing 0.24x), and ₹3,360 Cr in order books, a P/BV of 2.2x–2.8x is justified. Net worth is growing (₹1,192 Cr as of Mar FY25 vs ₹462 Cr in Mar FY24 — driven by ₹220 crore warrant allotment in Nov 2024).
→ 2.2x × ₹92 = ₹202.4 2.8x × ₹92 = ₹257.6
Range: ₹200 – ₹260
Consolidated Fair Value Range: All three methods point to ₹200–₹280 as fair value, with upside to ₹320+ if wind business executes and margins normalize to 12–14%. The stock is at ₹201 — essentially at the lower bound. The question isn’t valuation; it’s whether the market will ever stop treating this company like a garbage collector and start treating it like an infrastructure service provider. Wind deliveries starting Feb 2026 could be the catalyst. Or not. Depends on whether investors actually read.
⚠️ EduInvesting Fair Value Range: ₹240 – ₹360. This fair value range is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Please consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any financial decision.
06 — What’s Cooking: News, Triggers & Drama
IT Raids, Promoter Pledges, Demergers & Wind Turbines. Welcome to Refex.
One Response
what will happen if it comes to 130-140 levels?