This Chemical Stock is Down 40% from Peak — But Has ₹2,800 Cr Capex Cooking. Multibagger Reloading or Just Dilution Drama?

This Chemical Stock is Down 40% from Peak — But Has ₹2,800 Cr Capex Cooking. Multibagger Reloading or Just Dilution Drama?

🧪 At a Glance

Aarti Industries, once the benzene boss of specialty chemicals, has seen a steep derating with a 40% fall from its peak. Yet it’s mid-way through a ₹2,800 crore capex overhaul, betting big on high-margin segments like chlorotoluene, MMA, and ethylation. Is this the perfect setup for a rebound?


🧠 Part 1: What the Hell Does Aarti Do Again?

Imagine a company that takes boring benzene, fries it in nitric acid, sprinkles some chlorine, and creates magic for:

  • 🎨 Paints
  • 💊 Pharma
  • 🌾 Fertilizers
  • 🏭 Energy
  • 🧪 Dyes and polymers

That’s Aarti Industries — India’s king of nitration, halogenation, hydrogenation, and industrial chemistry tongue twisters.

The company’s split by product chains:

Value ChainKey Products
Benzene ChainNCB, DCB, PDA, MPD, OPD — 108–120 KTPA capacity at 76% utilization
Toluene ChainToluidines, MNPT, NEOT — capacity being expanded
Sulphuric ChainSulphuric acid, Oleum, SO3, Di-methyl sulphate
New BetsEthylation, MMA, Chlorotoluene, Plastic Recycling, CDMO pilot plants

🧪 Part 2: The Financial Chemistry — Is It Explosive or Inert?

Let’s mix the core financials:

MetricFY21FY22FY23FY24FY25
Revenue (₹ Cr)4,5066,0866,6196,3727,271
Net Profit (₹ Cr)5351,186545416331
ROCE13%22%10%7%6%
EPS (₹)15.0232.7115.0411.499.13
Operating Margin22%28%16%15%14%

🎯 Translation: Profit has halved since FY22 peak. Margins dropped like a hot acid flask. The expansion didn’t yet translate into earnings.


🔬 Part 3: The ₹2,800 Cr Bet — Capex or CapTrap?

Aarti is in the middle of a massive bet — ₹2,800 crore of capex over FY25–27. Breakdown:

🏗️ What’s Cooking?

  • 🧪 Methyl Aniline (MMA): 200 KTPA commissioned — exports already active
  • 🔁 Nitro Toluene: Expansion from 30 → 45 KTPA (Jhagadia)
  • 🌱 Ethylation: Capacity expanded to 25–30 KTPA (Dahej SEZ)
  • 🧫 Zone IV Greenfield: 95-acre chlorotoluene project (FY26–27)
  • 🏭 Pilot Plants: For pharma/custom synthesis (CDMO)
  • ♻️ Plastic Recycling JV: Target 500 TPD, ₹100 Cr investment

📉 Funded how?

Mostly through debt. Borrowings have jumped from ₹2,907 Cr in FY23 to ₹3,847 Cr in FY25, raising leverage risks.


🧪 Part 4: The Margin Rescue Plan

Margins were 28% at peak (FY22) but now hover around 14%. So how is Aarti trying to revive profitability?

StrategyMargin Impact
Shift to high-margin chlorotolueneEBITDA >25–30% (FY26 onwards)
Move away from commoditized NCB/DCBReducing margin pressure
Custom manufacturing (CMO/CDMO)Targeting global pharma & agro clients
Renewable energy >75% by FY27Cost savings from lower energy spend
Plastic recycling JV (Re Aarti)ESG play + forward integration

🌍 Part 5: Global Plays and Clientele

Aarti’s not some domestic-only lab rat. It exports 44% of revenues, with marquee clients:

  • 💊 Pharma: Bayer, Syngenta, FMC
  • 🎨 Paints & Pigments: Huntsman, Archroma, Clariant
  • 🧬 Polymers: BASF, Teijin, Toray, DuPont

Its products go into everything from painkillers to pesticides to pigment printers.


💸 Part 6: Valuation — Still a Premium Chemical?

MetricValue
Market Cap₹16,752 Cr
P/E Ratio50.9x
Book Value₹155
Price / Book2.97x
Dividend Yield0.22%

So yes — it’s still priced at a premium, even with mediocre ROCE and falling earnings.

📉 Stock Price CAGR?

  • 5-Year CAGR = 2% 🤕
  • 3-Year CAGR = -10% 😵
  • 1-Year = -32% 💀

Investors are clearly not buying the “high capex = high growth” story… yet.


🧪 Part 7: Verdict — Rebound or Reactant?

🧠 What’s working:

  • Massive infrastructure is already commissioned
  • New verticals like MMA and ethylation already live
  • Zone IV could be a margin gamechanger
  • Energy savings + high-margin products = tailwinds

💣 What’s not:

  • Profits are still falling
  • Debt is increasing
  • ROCE & ROE at decade lows
  • Foreign holding has fallen from 12% → 6.3% over last 2 years

🚨 Final Reaction:

“The chemistry is right — but the market’s waiting for a reaction.”

Aarti might well be India’s Linde in disguise, but until those capex assets start printing 25%+ EBITDA margins, the rerating is on hold.

If you’re a long-term believer in Indian chemistry dominance — this is accumulation zone.
But if you’re a short-term momentum hunter — this stock’s still in the lab.


✍️ Written by Prashant | 📅 16 June 2025

Tags: aarti industries, specialty chemicals, nifty 500, benzene value chain, capex story, zone iv project, chlorotoluene, methyl aniline, ethylation, cdmo india, chemical stock analysis, eduinvesting recap

Prashant Marathe

https://eduinvesting.in

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