1. At a Glance – Blink and You’ll Miss the Profits
Greenlam Industries currently sits at a market cap of ₹6,171 crore with the stock hovering around ₹242, down ~12% over one year and ~9% over three months. Sales look solid on the surface — TTM revenue ₹2,870 crore with a healthy ~14% sales CAGR over 3–5 years — but profits have gone on a spiritual retreat. Q3 FY26 delivered ₹706 crore revenue (+17.3% YoY) and still ended with a consolidated net loss of ₹0.59 crore. ROCE is 7.41%, ROE 6.07%, debt-to-equity 1.03, and interest coverage just 1.58×. And yet… the stock trades at ~340× earnings. Yes, three hundred and forty. This is either peak optimism or the market pricing a future that hasn’t shown up yet.
2. Introduction – From Poster Child to Pressure Cooker
Greenlam has long been a poster child of India’s branded laminates story: exports to 120+ countries, brands plastered across architect catalogues, and factories spread across India. For years, it delivered steady revenue growth and respectable margins. Then came aggressive capex, new product bets, and debt. The result? Revenue momentum stayed, profitability didn’t. FY25 profits fell sharply (TTM PAT ₹17 crore), and Q3 FY26 slipped into a loss despite higher sales. This isn’t a demand problem — it’s a balance-sheet-and-cost problem. Greenlam is in the middle of a transition phase where execution matters more than branding slogans.
3. Business
Model – WTF Do They Even Do?
Greenlam sells surfaces. Lots of surfaces.
Laminates for kitchens, veneers for luxury interiors, plywood for structural needs — and now particle board for the mass furniture market.
- Laminates & Allied Products (85.3%) – the cash cow
- Veneers & Allied Products (7.6%)
- Plywood & Allied Products (4.1%)
- New entrant: Particle Board (commercial production started Jan 2025)
This is a volume-heavy, branding-driven business with moderate pricing power and high working capital needs. When capacity expansions work, margins improve. When they don’t, interest costs eat profits for breakfast.
4. Financials Overview – The Numbers Don’t Lie (But They Do Sigh)
| Metric | Latest Qtr (Q3 FY26) | YoY Qtr (Q3 FY25) | Prev Qtr (Q2 FY26) | YoY % | QoQ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₹ Cr) | 706.37 | 602.04 | 808.26 | +17.3% | -12.6% |
| EBITDA (₹ Cr) | 68.23 | 63.54 | 104.39 | +7.4% | -34.6% |
| PAT (₹ Cr) | -0.59 | 12.54 | 31.77 | -106.9% | -101.9% |
| EPS (₹) | -0.01 | 0.50 | 1.27 | — | — |
Annualised EPS (Q3 rule):
Average of Q1–Q3 FY26 EPS = (-0.60 + 1.27 + -0.01)/3 ≈ 0.22 → Annualised ≈ ₹0.88
At ₹242, implied P/E ≈ 275×+, still absurdly high.
