1. At a Glance – PSU Green Giant or Overpriced Climate Poster?
NTPC Green Energy Limited (NGEL) entered the markets with the confidence of a PSU backed by India’s largest power producer and the valuation of a Silicon Valley climate startup. As of 29 Jan 2026, the stock trades at ₹92.3, implying a market cap of ₹77,800 Cr, while the business delivered TTM revenue of ₹2,568 Cr and TTM PAT of ₹557 Cr. That alone should make you pause mid-sip of green tea.
In the last 3 months, the stock is down ~10.5%, and over 1 year it’s down ~19.7%, despite renewable energy being the hottest political, ESG, and Davos-panel-friendly theme imaginable. Why? Because numbers eventually tap the mic and ask for attention.
Operationally, NGEL controls a massive 26,071 MW renewable portfolio (operational + awarded + pipeline). Financially, it carries ₹21,826 Cr of borrowings, runs at ROE ~3.85%, and trades at a headline P/E of 139 based on trailing EPS. Spoiler alert: once we annualise earnings correctly, that P/E starts looking even more adventurous.
This is a company with 86–90% operating margins, long-term 25-year PPAs, and promoter holding of 89%. Sounds safe? Maybe. Sounds cheap? Absolutely not.
So the real question: Is this a long-duration green compounding machine temporarily misunderstood… or a PSU honeymoon valuation that reality is slowly cancelling?
2. Introduction – Welcome to the PSU Green Rush
NGEL was incorporated in April 2022, just in time for India’s renewable ambition to go from PowerPoint slides to sovereign policy obsession. As a wholly owned renewable arm of NTPC Limited, NGEL enjoys policy tailwinds, lender confidence, and guaranteed dinner invites at energy conferences.
The business model is simple and elegant:
- Build solar & wind projects
- Lock in long-term PPAs (mostly 25 years)
- Earn predictable cash flows
- Reinvest aggressively
And yet, simplicity doesn’t mean lightness. Renewable energy is capital-hungry, debt-loving, and patience-testing. NGEL is still in
heavy asset build-out mode, which explains why profits look anaemic compared to valuation.
Q3 FY26 results reminded investors of this reality. Quarterly PAT fell 73% YoY, not because the sun stopped shining, but because depreciation and interest decided to shine brighter.
This is not a scam. This is not mismanagement. This is math meeting valuation.
Before we go deeper—ask yourself:
👉 Are you analysing NGEL like a power utility… or pricing it like a tech platform?
3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?
Imagine a very disciplined PSU engineer whose only hobby is installing solar panels across half of India.
That’s NGEL.
Core Activities
- Development, construction & operation of solar and wind projects
- Power sold under long-term PPAs
- Majority counterparties are state & central utilities
Capacity Snapshot (MW)
- Operational: 3,320 MW
- Contracted/Awarded: 13,576 MW
- Pipeline: 9,175 MW
Total: 26,071 MW, making NGEL the largest renewable PSU in India (excluding hydro).
Revenue Mix FY24
- Solar: 91%
- Wind: 4.5%
- Consultancy & PM fees: 1.5%
- Others: 3%
This is not a diversified FMCG business. This is a pure solar-heavy utility, with geographic concentration risk (Rajasthan contributes 62.2% of operational capacity).
NGEL is also dabbling in:
- Green hydrogen
- Green ammonia
- Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS)
But let’s be honest—these are still
