1. At a Glance – The Green Giant Having a Red Day
Adani Green Energy Limited (AGEL) currently trades around ₹772, nursing a brutal -24% return in the last one year and -20% in six months, which is not exactly the “green returns” ESG investors dream about while sipping oat milk. With a market cap of ₹1.27 lakh crore, AGEL is still a heavyweight — just one that’s been punched repeatedly by markets lately.
On paper, the company looks like a renewable superstar: 14.2 GW operational capacity in FY25, expanding to ~17.2 GW by 9M FY26, with an audacious target of 50 GW by 2030. Revenue stands at ₹12,499 Cr (TTM), EBITDA margins are a jaw-dropping 80%+, and sales growth over three years clocks ~30% CAGR.
But zoom into the latest quarter (Q3 FY26) and the mood darkens. PAT crashed to just ₹5 Cr, EPS slipped into the negative at -₹0.25, and interest costs alone gulped down ₹1,698 Cr in the quarter. Debt has swollen to ₹80,040 Cr, pushing Debt/Equity to 4.5x, while interest coverage limps at 1.29x — basically, the company is running very fast, but also very leveraged.
So the big question: is AGEL a long-term renewable compounding machine temporarily misunderstood by the market… or a balance-sheet-heavy infrastructure beast that markets are finally pricing rationally? Let’s open the inverter box and inspect the wiring.
2. Introduction – From Sunshine to Storm Clouds
Adani Green Energy Limited was incorporated in 2015, right when India decided renewables were no longer “nice to have” but “national priority”. Fast forward a decade, and AGEL has become India’s largest renewable energy company, with one of the biggest global portfolios of utility-scale solar and wind assets.
The company develops, owns, and operates solar, wind, hybrid, and pumped storage assets, mostly under 25-year fixed tariff PPAs signed with sovereign-grade counterparties like SECI, NTPC, NHPC, and state DISCOMs. In theory, this makes cash flows predictable, boring, and stable — the holy trinity for infrastructure investors.
But AGEL is not boring. It is aggressively expansionist. Capacity jumped from 8.1 GW in FY23 to 14.2
GW in FY25, and further to ~17.2 GW by Dec 2025. This kind of growth doesn’t come free. It comes funded by debt, equity dilution, structured finance, and a strong stomach for leverage.
Markets once loved this story. Then came governance noise, DOJ/SEC indictments against directors (not convictions, but still…), rising interest rates, and suddenly leverage stopped looking sexy. The stock derated hard, even while operational metrics kept improving.
So now AGEL sits at a crossroads: operational execution remains world-class, but financial optics are under pressure. Is the market overreacting… or finally reacting?
3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?
Imagine being a landlord, but instead of renting apartments, you rent electrons to the government for 25 years. That’s AGEL in simple terms.
AGEL builds massive renewable power plants — mostly solar (71%), wind (13%), and hybrid (16%) as of FY25. Once built, these assets generate electricity which is sold under long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) at fixed tariffs.
Revenue Engine
- 86% of capacity is tied to 25-year fixed tariff PPAs
- 14% merchant exposure, which adds some volatility but also upside
- Counterparties are mostly sovereign or quasi-sovereign — meaning default risk is low, but payment delays are a thing
Operational Edge
AGEL runs all its plants through an Energy Network Operation Center (ENOC) in Ahmedabad, monitoring assets across 12 states in real time. This cloud-based setup, combined with Google Cloud AI/ML, helps maintain 99%+
