🟢 At a Glance:
Russia — the guy who started the party — now wants to go home. Ukraine — the one whose house was trashed — says, “Not before I break your legs.” With Putin reportedly signaling interest in a ceasefire (but only on current lines), and Zelensky doubling down on retaking lost territory, we’re now in the weirdest phase of war: the instigator is begging for a timeout, while the victim is asking for extra time.

🧨 So What’s Going On?

Here’s the plot twist:

• Putin wants a pause, not because he found inner peace, but because:
  • The Russian economy is bleeding from endless sanctions
  • Defence spending is unsustainable
  • Troop morale is collapsing faster than the ruble in 2022
  • And oh — he needs to look victorious before the 2026 elections

Meanwhile…

• Ukraine smells momentum:
  • New weapons from the West (like US long-range missiles & German air defences) are flowing in again
  • Russia’s advantage is shrinking with stalled offensives
  • Spring-summer is always better for counterattacks
  • The narrative of “we’re winning” is politically useful for Zelensky too

🧾 Russia’s Side: Ceasefire, Please?

Putin wants to lock in what he’s got before it slips.

• 🪖 Current territory held: ~18% of Ukraine
• 📉 Casualty fatigue: Over 300,000+ troop deaths/serious injuries reported unofficially
• 🛑 Sanctions & Isolation: GDP stagnation, oil price cap biting
• 🗳️ Election optics: Wants to appear as the “winner” before Russia votes again

But the proposed ceasefire isn’t real peace — it’s a “let’s freeze the war where it is” deal.

Translation:
“Let me keep what I stole, and let’s move on.”

🇺🇦 Ukraine’s Side: Hell No

Ukraine says — “We didn’t lose tens of thousands of lives just to let you walk away.”

• 🔥 Momentum is real: Russian advances stalled, especially in Kharkiv and Donetsk
• ✈️ Western aid resumed: $60B from US + EU air defence support
• 🤝 Public opinion still strong: Ukrainian morale remains defiant
• 🗺️ Goal unchanged: Full territorial integrity — including Crimea

For Zelensky, accepting Putin’s deal means:

❌ Recognizing Russian occupation
❌ Abandoning Ukrainian land
❌ Looking weak before NATO summit and domestic elections

📊 Battlefield Snapshot – May 2025

🧠 Why Russia’s “Ceasefire Offer” is Not Really About Peace

Let’s decode the geopolitical lingo:

“Ceasefire based on current realities” =
“Let me keep Donbas, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Crimea”

But this is exactly what Ukraine has been fighting against.

This isn’t a peace deal. It’s Putin hitting the pause button so he can regroup, avoid humiliation, and play “statesman” in BRICS & Global South summits.

🕵️ The Real Strategy: Who Gains from a Pause?

• Russia gains time to:
  • Re-arm
  • Recruit (read: conscript)
  • Stabilize domestic unrest
• Ukraine fears:
  • Losing international support if fighting slows
  • Another massive Russian push in 2026
  • A slow shift in Western patience (especially US post-elections)

🥊 The NATO & Global Angle

• 🧭 NATO wants Ukraine to keep pressure but avoid escalation
• 🗳️ US elections are coming — Biden wants “Ukraine not collapsing” headlines
• 🇨🇳 China? Just watching silently, selling cheap drones to both sides probably
• 🇮🇳 India? Hosting G20 tourism events while rupee trades with Russia

So yeah — diplomacy is still miles behind the battlefield.

🔮 What Happens Next?

🧵 EduInvesting Take

This is not a Marvel movie. There’s no satisfying climax. Just real people dying while the chessboard moves.

Putin wants to rest before Round 3.
Zelensky wants revenge before the world loses interest.
Both are stuck between “peace talks” and “war fatigue”, while the global audience is moving on to the next crisis.

The war may go silent. But it’s not over.

✍️ Author: Prashant Marathe
📅 Date: June 3, 2025
🏷️ Tags: Russia Ukraine War, Ceasefire Talks 2025, Geopolitics, Putin Zelensky, NATO Strategy