🟢 At a Glance:
The government’s flagship PM Gareeb Kalyan Anna Yojana (free ration scheme) is set to end this June 2025. For nearly 80 crore Indians, this has been a lifeline. But now the big question for the markets: Will this hit demand for FMCG stocks like HUL, ITC, Britannia, and Adani Wilmar?
🍚 The Scheme That Fed Half of India
Let’s rewind.
- First launched during COVID (April 2020)
- Provided 5 kg free rice/wheat per person/month to ration card holders
- Extended 10 times since
- Total foodgrain distributed: ~1100 lakh tonnes
- Annual cost: ₹2.2 lakh crore
But now… it’s ending.
And the impact will be very real, especially in rural India.
Because when free food goes away, so does the spending capacity on packaged biscuits
and shampoos.
📉 FMCG + Rural = Pain?
Here’s why analysts are sweating:
| Factor | Impact |
|---|---|
| Rural demand slowdown | Already visible in Q4 results (HUL, Dabur, Marico all flagged it) |
| Free ration ends | Reduces disposable income in bottom 50% |
| Monsoon forecast weak | May further reduce agri income |
| Election-year subsidies cut | Fiscal tightening likely post-July |
Combine all that, and FMCG demand looks shakier than a JioCinema stream on 2G.
📦 Which Companies Are Most at Risk?
| Company | Rural Exposure | Key Products Affected |
| HUL | 35–40% | Wheel, Lifebuoy, Surf, Annapurna Atta |
| Dabur | ~45% | Chyawanprash, juices, honey |
| ITC | 30%+ | Aashirvaad Atta, Sunfeast biscuits |
| Adani Wilmar | High | Fortune oil, rice, wheat flour |
These brands grew despite inflation — now they face both inflation and
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