1. At a Glance
Once the poster child of India’s café revolution,Coffee Day Enterprises Ltd (CDEL)today sits in a caffeine coma — trading at₹36, with amarket cap of ₹763 crore,book value of ₹123, and aprice-to-book of just 0.29x.Imagine selling cappuccinos at full price while the market treats your stock like leftover filter coffee.
The September 2025 quarter was another rollercoaster.Revenue stood at ₹280 crore, up 3.78% YoY, whilePAT crashed to a loss of ₹12.5 crore, an eyebrow-raising279% drop in profits. The company’sdebt stands at ₹1,145 crore,ROE at -0.96%, andROCE at a near-flat 1.01%.Promoter holding? A sobering8.21%, with26.6% pledged.
The stock has delivered-27.8% in 3 months, but is stillup 23.3% over a year, like a recovering caffeine addict — jittery, unpredictable, but alive. The auditors have once againdisclaimed resultsdue to unverified recoverables worth ₹1,519 crore and the MACEL mess of ₹3,372.83 crore. And yet, in the middle of this corporate hangover,Café Coffee Day still serves 48,788 vending machines and 469 cafés, proving caffeine is easier to deliver than clarity.
2. Introduction – The Great Indian Coffee Tragedy
Once upon a brew,VG Siddharthadreamt of bringing Starbucks-style coffee culture to small-town India. And he did. But after his untimely demise in 2019, Coffee Day Enterprises became a case study indebt, default, and delayed disclosures.
CDEL’s journey since then has been part thriller, part soap opera. On one hand, you’ve got the CEO —Malavika Hegde— trying to save the legacy her husband built. On the other, you have lenders with recall notices worth₹433.91 crore, auditors throwing disclaimers like confetti, and theSupreme Courtitself occasionally joining the caffeine party to decide whether the company should go bankrupt or not.
The group’s empire, once spanninglogistics, tech parks, hospitality, and financial services, has shrunk to its core —coffee retail, vending machines, and a handful of boutique resorts.
Still, the Coffee Day brand has muscle memory. Indians still remember CCD as the place for their first date, first breakup, or first overpriced cold coffee. The question is: can the brand rise again when the financial espresso machine is out of steam?
3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?
Let’s decode this caffeine cocktail.
Coffee Day Enterprises Ltdis not just about brewing espresso — it’s a corporate holding company running multiple verticals:
- Coffee Business (94% of revenue): ThroughCafé Coffee Day, the company runs469 cafés in 154 citiesand268 Value Express kiosks.Its vending arm serves48,788 coffee machinesacross offices and hotels.
- Hospitality (5%): Operates three luxury resorts under“The Serai”brand — inChikmagalur, Bandipur, and Kabini. There’s also an equity stake in a resort in theAndamans.
- Investment & Corporate Ops (1%): Because no Indian conglomerate is complete without a mysterious “investment” division that loses money faster than it earns interest.
The company also dabbled in logistics (viaSical Logistics) and IT parks, but those ventures became debt magnets.
In short: Coffee Day brews coffee, runs resorts, rents out properties, and plays debt-Tetris with lenders. If diversification were a sport, they’d have an Olympic medal — but the scoreboard showslosses every year since FY21.
4. Financials Overview
Quarterly Performance Snapshot – Consolidated (₹ crore)
| Metric | Q2 FY26 (Sep 2025) | Q2 FY25 (Sep 2024) | Q1 FY26 (Jun 2025) | YoY % | QoQ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 280 | 269 | 269 | 4.1% | 0.4% |
| EBITDA | 32 | 32 | 32 | 0% | 0% |
| PAT | -12.5 | -16 | 23 | 22% improvement YoY | -154% |
| EPS (₹) | -0.59 | -0.49 | 1.33 | -20% | -144% |
Commentary:Revenue growth is flatter than a decaf latte. Operating
margins hover around11%, but profits have gone up in smoke. The company seems to be generating “Other Income” faster than core income, with frequent spikes due toasset sales and one-time items.
Auditors remain skeptical — “recoverability of ₹1,519 crore receivables” and “MACEL loans” continue to haunt financial statements like a ghost that refuses to leave the café.
5. Valuation Discussion – Fair Value Range (Educational)
Let’s brew some numbers:
- EPS (TTM)= ₹ -1.31
- Book Value= ₹ 123
- Current Price= ₹ 36.1
- P/B= 0.29
- Industry P/E= 132
Method 1: P/E Based Valuation (Educational)If Coffee Day miraculously breaks even and achieves an EPS of ₹2 (a modest dream), and the market assigns a P/E of 20 (way below industry average), the fair value = ₹40.
Method 2: EV/EBITDA Based ValuationEV = ₹1,813 croreEBITDA (TTM) = ₹157 croreEV/EBITDA = 11.5x. Peers likeJubilant FoodWorkstrade around 25x. Applying a conservative 12–16x gives a value range of ₹36–₹48.
Method 3: Simplified DCF (Educational)Assuming FCF of ₹196 crore (FY25 level), growing 5% annually for 5 years, with a 12% discount rate: intrinsic range = ₹35–₹45.
✅Educational Fair Value Range: ₹35 – ₹50 per share(Disclaimer: This range is purely for educational analysis, not investment advice.)
6. What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, Drama
2025 has been anything but boring for Coffee Day.
- Supreme Court Saga:The company spent the year fightingCIRP proceedings. In February, theNCLAT set aside insolvency, briefly reviving hopes that the café chain might survive its debt demons.
- Debt Settlements:Coffee Day reportedlysettled ₹205 crore debtwith debenture holders in March and₹2,050 million lender settlementin November 2025.
- Defaults Continue:Despite settlements, disclosures showdefaults of ₹181.66 crore in loansand₹14.76 crore interestas recently as
