1. At a Glance
Confidence Petroleum India Ltd (CPIL) has always lived up to its name — the “Confidence” part. Whether it’s importing butane like a Gulf trader, manufacturing LPG cylinders like there’s no tomorrow, or opening CNG stations in Bengaluru faster than traffic lights change — CPIL does everything with swag.
As of Q2 FY26, the company reported consolidated revenue of ₹983 crore, up 31.8% YoY, while PAT stood at ₹20.3 crore, up 14.6% YoY. But that’s not the only number burning hot — the company’s debt ballooned to ₹830 crore, and GST authorities slapped a demand notice of ₹233.84 crore. Because why settle for growth without a little drama?
At a market cap of ₹1,319 crore and a P/E of 14x, the stock trades at just 0.96x book value. The ROE at 7.24% and ROCE at 9.33% scream “operationally alive but financially wheezing.” Yet, it remains India’s largest private LPG bottler, running 68+ bottling plants, 287 Auto LPG stations, and 690 tankers zooming across highways.
In short: Confidence Petroleum is the small-town cousin of the oil giants — hustling harder, sweating more, and occasionally explaining itself to the tax department.
2. Introduction
If you’ve ever wondered who fills those shiny GoGas cylinders seen in the corners of dhabas or near highway motels, meet Confidence Petroleum India Ltd, the desi multitasker of the LPG world. It bottles, markets, manufactures, imports, dispenses, retails, and occasionally — gets raided.
Founded by the Khara family, this Nagpur-based gas conglomerate has built an empire out of combustion. What Reliance is to petrochemicals, CPIL wants to be for LPG. But while Reliance operates from glass towers, CPIL’s empire is built from steel cylinders, soot, and good old jugaad.
Over the years, CPIL has expanded across two primary divisions — LPG (88% of revenue) and Cylinder Manufacturing (12%). And within that, it’s spread thin — from bulk industrial LPG imports to retail Auto LPG stations, and even high-pressure composite cylinders for green hydrogen.
The last few years have been a rollercoaster. Revenue has grown from ₹2,698 crore in FY24 to ₹3,717 crore in FY25 — a solid 22% growth, with PAT steady around ₹94 crore. But the stock has nosedived 41% over the past year, proving once again that the market doesn’t clap for “steady” when it’s expecting “spectacular.”
Still, CPIL’s journey from a small cylinder fabricator to a ₹3,700 crore turnover company is impressive. It’s a bit like watching a Maruti 800 overtake a BMW in first gear — noisy, unpredictable, but oddly satisfying.
3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?
So what exactly does Confidence Petroleum do, apart from getting into every LPG-related business possible?
At its core, CPIL is India’s biggest private LPG bottler. Think of it as the neighborhood gas station chain, except it bottles the gas, sells it, and sometimes even makes the bottles.
Let’s decode the madness:
- LPG Division (88% of revenue)
a) Bulk Marketing: They import LPG, propane, and butane directly from the Middle East. Then sell it to industries that can’t survive without fire — like steel, glass, ceramics, and food processing. In short, CPIL is the Tinder between Middle Eastern gas producers and Indian industrial burners. b) Auto LPG: Under the “GoGas” brand,
- they run 287 Auto LPG Dispensing Stations (ALDS). So if you’ve ever filled your car at a small roadside station with a bright green GoGas board, that’s them. c) Bottling: They own 68+ LPG bottling plants, not just for themselves but also as outsourced bottlers for IOCL, BPCL, and HPCL. Basically, they’re the backup singers in the PSU gas concert.
- Cylinder Division (12% of revenue)
They make LPG cylinders — both household and industrial ones. 15 LPG cylinder plants and 3 high-pressure cylinder units keep the steel rolling. They’ve also entered CNG retail through a partnership with GAIL Gas, where they’re setting up 100 stations in Bangalore (45 done so far). And just to stay trendy, they’re building carbon composite Type-4 cylinders for hydrogen and nitrogen — because “decarbonization” sounds good in investor decks.
In short: If it involves gas, Confidence Petroleum is doing it. The only thing missing is a reality show called Keeping Up with the Kharas.
4. Financials Overview
| Metric | Latest Qtr (Q2 FY26) | YoY Qtr (Q2 FY25) | Prev Qtr (Q1 FY26) | YoY % | QoQ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (₹ Cr) | 983 | 746 | 1,112 | 31.8% | -11.6% |
| EBITDA (₹ Cr) | 82 | 78 | 83 | 5.1% | -1.2% |
| PAT (₹ Cr) | 20.3 | 17.7 | 20.0 | 14.6% | 1.5% |
| EPS (₹) | 0.61 | 0.53 | 0.61 | 15.1% | 0% |
Annualized EPS = ₹0.61 × 4 = ₹2.44
At CMP ₹39.7, P/E = 16.3x — a touch higher than screener’s 14x due to rounding, but still modest compared to industry P/E of 21x.
Commentary:
Revenue grew sharply YoY but slipped QoQ — the “festival season” didn’t light up the cylinders as expected. Margins cooled to 8% OPM from 10% last year. PAT’s 14% growth is decent, but the stock acts like it just lost a gas connection.
5. Valuation Discussion – Fair Value Range (Educational Only)
Method 1: P/E Multiple
- FY25 EPS = ₹2.83
- Peer median P/E (Adani Gas, Gujarat Gas, MGL, Petronet LNG) ≈ 21x
- Applying a conservative 12x–18x band for CPIL (smallcap discount)
→ Fair Value = ₹2.83 × (12 to 18) = ₹34 to ₹51 per share
Method 2: EV/EBITDA
- EV = ₹2,028 Cr, EBITDA (FY25) = ₹337 Cr → EV/EBITDA = 6.0x
Peers trade 10–12x.
→ Fair Value (at 8–10x) = (8 × 337 – Debt 830) / Shares ≈ ₹43–₹55
Method 3: Simplified DCF (educational)
Assume 10% annual FCF growth for 5 years from ₹10 Cr
