1. At a Glance
Natco Pharma is that one Hyderabad overachiever who juggles R&D, FDA inspections, and court battles like a Tollywood hero dodging bullets in slow-motion. The stock closed at₹865(down – 0.52%) with amarket cap of ₹15,489 Cr,P/E 10.1, andROE 28%– numbers any pharma analyst would swipe right on.
Yet, behind the scientific glamour sits a quarterly reality check:Sales ₹1,363 Cr,PAT ₹518 Cr,down 23.5 % QoQ, because apparently, even blockbuster generics have intermissions. Operating margins still command a royal ~42 %, proving Natco’s cost discipline is tighter than an FDA Form 483 checklist.
The company’sexport formulationsnow make up44 %of the pie (vs 73 % FY23),domestic formulations 15 %, andcontract manufacturing 29 %– clearly, Natco is spreading its chemistry like ghee on a paratha.
And just as analysts were sipping coffee, the US FDA giftedseven Form-483 observations(Nov 2025, Manali API unit). Because in pharma, “love letters” from regulators are part of the romance.
2. Introduction
Once upon a time, Natco was a modest API shop. Today, it’s an international pharma drama: court battles, patent settlements, and now aUS $226 Mn South African fling (Adcock Ingram acquisition). Think of it as theRRRof Indian pharma – R&D, Regulations, and Revenue diversification.
From oncology to agrochemicals, Natco sells everything from anti-cancer tablets to pest repellents – essentially fighting diseases in both humans and tomatoes. The domestic oncology brand is so entrenched that oncologists prescribe it faster than the stock price corrects post-results.
While the market keeps asking, “Why the drop from ₹1,500 to ₹865?”, management answers with new filings, niche launches, and dividend cheques. FY25 deliveredrecord ₹4,784 Cr revenueand₹1,883 Cr profit, only for FY26 guidance to promise – 30 % profit. A little melodrama keeps investors awake.
Yet, when yourROCE 33 %anddebt : equity 0.03, you can afford a few Bollywood plot twists.
3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?
Natco is the three-in-one shampoo of pharma –Formulations + APIs + Contract Manufacturing, now with a dash of Agro Science.
- Export Formulations (44 %): their bread, butter, and occasionally champagne. Partnering with giants likeTeva, Mylan, Lupin, they play the “first-to-file Para IV” game – the legal version of musical chairs.
- Domestic Formulations (15 %): oncology and specialty pharma. A 850-person sales army ensures doctors remember “Natco” even in their dreams.
- APIs (10 %): the behind-the-scenes backbone – 50 + molecules, mostly oncology.
- Crop Sciences (2 %): an ambitious bet on pesticides; target ₹130-140 Cr revenue FY26.
- Contract Manufacturing (29 %): 40 + products for major Indian names – Natco’s profitable freelancing gig.
Eight plants, two R&D centres, and 570 patents later, Natco looks less like a pharma company and more like a scientific version of Dmart – quietly efficient, occasionally scandalous.
4. Financials Overview
| Metric | Latest Qtr (Q2 FY26) | Same Qtr Last Yr (Q2 FY25) | Prev Qtr (Q1 FY26) | YoY % | QoQ % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ₹ 1,363 Cr | ₹ 1,371 Cr | ₹ 1,329 Cr | – 0.6 % | + 2.6 % |
| EBITDA | ₹ 579 Cr | ₹ 804 Cr | ₹ 571 Cr | – 28 % | + 1.4 % |
| PAT | ₹ 518 Cr | ₹ 676 Cr | ₹ 480 Cr | – 23.4 % | + 7.9 % |
| EPS (₹) | 28.9 | 37.8 | 26.8 | – 23.4 % | + 7.9 % |
Annualised EPS ≈ ₹ 115.6 → P/E ≈ 7.5×
Margins dipped but stayed elite; the drop in US sales hurt YoY, yet Natco still prints profits fatter than most mid-caps’ revenues. When OPM > 40 %, you’re not a company – you’re a printing press with FDA audits.
5. Valuation Discussion – Fair
Value Range Only
Method 1 – P/E:Industry avg ≈ 31×. Natco trades 10×. Even if the market discounts its FY26 guidance (–30 % PAT), a fair band of₹ 1,150–₹ 1,450emerges.
Method 2 – EV/EBITDA:EV ₹ 13,060 Cr / EBITDA FY25 ₹ 2,196 Cr → 6×. Peer avg ≈ 15×. Applying 8–10× gives₹ 1,200–₹ 1,500range.
Method 3 – DCF:Assume FY25 FCF ₹ 1,697 Cr, 5 % growth, 12 % discount → Fair EV ≈ ₹ 16,500–₹ 18,000 Cr → Per-share₹ 920–₹ 1,000.
🎯Educational Fair Value Range:₹ 920 – ₹ 1,450.Disclaimer: purely for educational purposes, not investment advice.
6. What’s Cooking – News, Triggers & Drama
If you thought pharma was boring, welcome to Natco’s November 2025 highlights:
- FDA Inspection Manali API unit (Nov 17–21): 7 observations.Because nothing says “Good Morning” like Form-483 emails.
- Interim Dividend ₹ 1.50/share– a small treat post Adcock Ingram buyout.
- Adcock Ingram Acquisition (ZAR 3,873 Mn ≈ USD 225 Mn):completed, de-listing done, and Hyderabad officially owns a piece of South African healthcare.
- Crop Demerger Evaluation (Sep 2025):board exploring separation – clearly tired of mixing pesticides with paracetamol.
- Legal Wins:Roche’s Risdiplam case dismissed → Natco launched at ₹ 15,900 MRP; generic Ozempic settled with Mylan & Novo Nordisk.
- M&A Rumours:Potential new acquisition brewing.
Basically, Natco’s corporate diary reads like an OTT thriller: legal battles, foreign flings, and FDA romance.
7. Balance Sheet (Q2 FY26)
| Item | Sep 2023 | Mar 2025 | Sep 2025 (Latest) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | ₹ 5,657 Cr | ₹ 8,631 Cr | ₹ 10,430 Cr |
| Net Worth (Equity + Reserves) | ₹ 4,873 Cr | ₹ 7,607 Cr | ₹ 8,650 Cr |
| Borrowings | ₹ 167 Cr | ₹ 279 Cr | ₹ 261 Cr |
| Other Liabilities | ₹ 617 Cr | ₹ 744 Cr | ₹ 1,520 Cr |
| Total Liabilities | ₹ 5,657 Cr | ₹ 8,631 Cr | ₹ 10,430 Cr |
Interpretation:
- Leverage so low, auditors need microscopes to find it.
- Reserves jumped ₹ 1,000 Cr + YoY – that’s R&D

