CMP ₹442 | Q4 PAT ₹110.92 Cr | EPS ₹3.02 | Q3 PAT ₹166.70 Cr | YoY Profit Down 36.7% | Still “Infra Boom” Hype

📌 At a Glance:

Afcons Infrastructure Ltd just dropped its Q4 FY25 results, and while the revenue looks strong (₹3,387 Cr), net profit is down 36.7% YoY. EPS dropped from ₹4.77 last year to ₹3.02 this quarter.

But CMP is ₹442 — the market clearly thinks it’s building the next Atal Setu to heaven.

🧾 Real, Verified Numbers (In Cr ₹, Not Laakhon Ka Jhol)

🧠 Q4 revenue up slightly YoY.
📉 But PAT down by ₹64 Cr.
🤒 EPS down from 4.77 ➝ 3.02

Infra toh build ho raha hai. Profits? Not so much.

📅 Full-Year FY25 Quick Estimate (based on quarters)

Total PAT FY25 ≈
Q1 (assumed ~₹100 Cr) + Q2 ₹140 Cr + Q3 ₹166 Cr + Q4 ₹110 Cr
≈ ₹516 Cr FY25 PAT (rounded estimate)

Trailing EPS ≈ ₹15–16

CMP ₹442 = P/E of ~29x

That’s not bad… if this was a tech company.

🔧 About Afcons Infrastructure Ltd

• Fully owned by Shapoorji Pallonji Group
• Focus on:
  • Metros
  • Bridges (sea, rail, road)
  • Tunnels
  • Marine infrastructure
• Executed parts of Atal Setu, Mumbai Metro, Eastern Peripheral Expressway

But now comes the big question: Is it profitable enough, or just project-fat?

🧠 EduInvesting Take: “Afcons is Building India — But Who’s Building Its Margins?”

• Profit YoY down 36.7%
• EPS slipping
• Infra costs rising
• Project delays = margin pressure

Meanwhile, the company is:

• 🎯 Winning mega-projects
• 👷 Sitting on large unbilled revenue
• 💰 Possibly EBITDA positive but working capital heavy

The risk? PSU-style cash crunch without PSU-style bailout.

🏗️ Infra Cycle Boom? Yes. Profitable Participation? Debatable.

Afcons is riding the infra wave — but so is half of India. What matters now:

• Margin retention
• Timely execution
• Government payment cycles
• Debt servicing clarity

And so far? The numbers aren’t horrible, but they’re not hero material either.

📉 What CMP ₹442 Is Pricing In:

Let’s do the numbers:

• EPS trailing: ₹15–16
• P/E implied: 27–30x
• For an infra EPC business? Premium valuation.

This means:
➡️ Market expects PAT to go ₹700–800 Cr+ next year
➡️ Or it’s pricing in future listing/merger/privatization-type event

Otherwise? Too rich for just construction margins.

⚠️ Risks

• 🔁 Working capital cycle
• 💰 Debtor days + retention money
• 🧱 Heavy capex or subcontractor risk
• 🏦 Cash flow lag from govt clients
• 🔄 No dividends → no passive income buffer

Also: Group company debt issues (Shapoorji Pallonji) sometimes cast shadows over subsidiaries.

📦 EduInvesting Verdict: “Afcons is building world-class infra. But are shareholders seeing class returns?”

This stock is a classic example of:

📈 India banega, toh Afcons kamaayega… but shareholder kya kamaayega?

EPS is down. PAT is slipping.
CMP is still flexing like it’s delivering Amazon Web Services — not bridges delayed by monsoons.

🧠 Verdict? Let the numbers build up again before the price builds a floor.

Author: Prashant Marathe
Date: May 23, 2025
Tags: Afcons Infrastructure, Infra Stocks, Q4 FY25, PAT Decline, EPS Drop, EPC Companies, EduInvesting, Shapoorji Pallonji Group, Funny Finance