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Nelcast Ltd Q2 FY26 – The ₹1,097 Cr Iron Detective That Casts Profits Slower Than Its Moulds


1. At a Glance

Nelcast Ltd — India’s largest jobbing foundry and probably the most hardworking smallcap nobody brags about — just dropped its Q2 FY26 results like a molten surprise.
At ₹126 a share, market cap ₹1,097 Cr, the company’s numbers look like that of a quiet factory that runs day and night but still gets roasted by analysts for low ROE.

Revenue for Q2 FY26 came in at ₹299 Cr (-9.6 % YoY) and PAT collapsed to ₹4.76 Cr (-44 % YoY). EBITDA margins cooled from 9 % last quarter to 5.7 %, probably because iron doesn’t care about your quarterly targets. The stock’s 6-month return? A dramatic +46 %. Three-month return? –25 %. A foundry roller-coaster worthy of a Netflix docu-series titled “When Grey Iron Meets Grey Hair.”

But underneath the smoke and molten metal, this Gudur-based casting maestro supplies to every automobile brand your uncle’s garage dreams of servicing.


2. Introduction

Picture this: A detective walks into a factory filled with red-hot furnaces, machine clanks, and mysterious castings stamped “TAFE,” “Tata,” and “Ashok Leyland.” The culprit? Margins hiding under rising power bills.

Nelcast’s story isn’t of glamour — it’s of grit. The company has mastered ductile and grey iron castings since 1982, quietly becoming the OEM whisperer for India’s auto backbone. Trucks, tractors, off-highway monsters — if it moves, Nelcast has probably built its bones.

Yet, despite decades of foundry finesse, investors still treat it like that underdog cousin in a family of flashy forging stars. ROE 6.5 %, ROCE 9.5 %, and a P/E near 30 — yes, the stock behaves more like a hot plate than a multibagger.

But the company’s export pipeline, cost optimisation (65 % renewable power already!) and tech-upgrades could turn this slow-melting metal into a future alloy of consistency.


3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?

Nelcast makes iron castings. Sounds simple till you realise each piece could hold together a 40-tonne truck or a 100-km/hr tractor.

Their product bouquet covers:

  • Commercial Vehicles – differential carriers, axle housings, bogie brackets.
  • Tractors – transmission and rear-axle housings (because farmers deserve torque too).
  • Off-Highway Equipment – monolithic axle housings and forklift parts.
  • Railways & Metro – brake discs and baseplates.
  • Passenger Vehicles – differential carriers, cases, and soon maybe ego boosts.

They run three plants across Andhra Pradesh & Tamil Nadu with a total capacity of 1,60,000 MTPA. Fully automated moulding lines now rule where sweaty men once ruled ladles — a literal industrial evolution.

Revenue mix screams diversification: 35 % M&HCV, 35 % Exports, 23 % Tractors, rest crumbs. Basically, they sell both within Bharat and Bavaria.


4. Financials Overview

Metric (₹ Cr)Latest Qtr (Sep’25)YoY Qtr (Sep’24)Prev Qtr (Jun’25)YoY %QoQ %
Revenue298.7330.4331.9-9.6 %-10.0 %
EBITDA17.121.428.2-20.2 %-39.4 %
PAT4.769.8212.5-51.5 %-62.0 %
EPS (₹)0.551.131.44-51.3 %-61.8 %

Annualised EPS: ₹ 0.55 × 4 = ₹ 2.20
P/E ≈ 57× – which is what happens when profits shrink faster than casting sand cools.

Margins melted due to export slowdown and lower CV demand. Power costs still near 10 % of sales; management promises solar will save them.


5. Valuation Discussion – Fair Value Range Only

(a) P/E Method:
TTM EPS ₹ 4.23 × 15–25 = ₹ 63 – ₹ 106

(b) EV/EBITDA Method:
EV ₹ 1,313 Cr / EBITDA ₹ 111 Cr = 11.8× (current).
Applying sector range 9–13× → ₹ 120 – ₹ 150

(c) DCF Approach:
Assume FCFF ₹ 70 Cr, g = 7 %, r = 11 %. → ₹ 115 – ₹ 140

🎯 Educational Fair Value Range: ₹ 105 – ₹ 145

Disclaimer: For educational purposes

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