💰 PNB Gilts Ltd Q2FY26 – ₹443 Cr Revenue, ₹45.7 Cr Loss, 9.3× P/E, 16% ROE: The Bond Trader Who Blinked When Yields Moved

1.At a Glance

PNB Gilts Ltd – where government bonds meet caffeine crashes.CMP: ₹93.1 | Market Cap: ₹1,672 Cr | Book Value: ₹91.2 | P/E: 9.36 | Dividend Yield: 1.07 % | ROE: 16.1 % | Debt: ₹24,843 Cr.

Q2FY26 was a mood swing quarter — revenue ₹443 Cr (down 11 % QoQ), PAT of–₹45.7 Cr, meaning the dealer desk went from trading gilts to grilling them. OPM collapsed from 95 % in June to 66 %.

Still, the company remains India’s OGPrimary Dealer, underwriting government borrowing like a dutiful sarkari broker. But when bond yields rise faster than chai prices, mark-to-market turns profits into memories.

The stock trades near book value — rare honesty in a market full of delusions. But under the hood, the company’s 16 % ROE hides leverage that’d make a fintech founder blush:debt/equity = 15×.

2.Introduction

Every bull market has its villains. Every bond market has its victims.Welcome toPNB Gilts Ltd, the child of Punjab National Bank that lives and breathes government securities — literally.

It’s a peculiar business: they borrow short, buy long, and pray that yields don’t rise before lunch. When the RBI hikes rates, dealers like PNB Gilts get caught in the crossfire — mark-to-market losses hit instantly, and traders suddenly remember why they should’ve taken that Treasury desk posting in Singapore.

The firm is one of thePrimary Dealerslicensed by the RBI — think of them as official intermediaries between the government’s borrowing binge and the market’s patience. When New Delhi issues bonds, PNB Gilts underwrites them, trades them, and occasionally cries over them.

FY25 saw profits of ₹180 Cr, but Q2FY26 reminded everyone that gilt trading is not for the faint-hearted. The company booked a quarterly loss after a solid run, proving again:“In gilts we trust, in yields we rust.”

3.Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?

Let’s decode the bond dealer’s labyrinth:

PNB Gilts earns primarily from:

• Interest income (99%)— mainly from government securities, T-Bills, SDLs, PSU bonds, and repo deals.
• Fee & advisory (1%)— portfolio management for institutions and banks.

It’s basically amarket maker for sovereign debt. The company borrows (₹18,000–₹20,000 Cr average) at ~5.4 %, invests ₹18,500 Cr in securities, and earns a spread between coupon income and funding cost.

The problem? That spread shrinks or turns negative whenever RBI raises rates — bond prices fall, MTM losses rise, and your P&L turns into poetry.

PNB Gilts also dabbles in interest-rate swaps, commercial paper, and sometimes equities — like a CA who got bored of Excel and discovered trading terminals.

TheirCapital Adequacy Ratio = 31.83 %, double the regulatory minimum. Translation: they can absorb volatility — or at least pretend to with a straight face.

4.Financials Overview

Commentary:When your operating margin falls from 95 % to 66 %, that’s not “margin pressure”; that’s a financial landslide. The culprit: yield curve volatility and bond MTM losses. Still, full-year profitability remains plausible if H2 stabilizes — which, in bond land, means if the RBI doesn’t sneeze.

5.Valuation Discussion – Fair Value Range (Educational Only)

1️⃣ P/E Method

TTM EPS = ₹9.98Industry P/E = 31Fair value = ₹9.98 × (8–12) = ₹80 – ₹120.CMP ₹93 = within fair zone.

2️⃣ EV/EBITDA

EV ₹25,996 Cr; EBITDA ₹1,539 Cr → EV/EBITDA = 16.9×Peer range 10–15× → Fair EV ≈ ₹15,000–₹23,000 Cr ⇒ ₹85–₹130/share.

3️⃣ DCF (5 % growth, 10 % discount, terminal