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Fedbank Financial Services Ltd Q1 FY26 – 74% Stock Rally in 6 Months, But ROE Just 9.3%: Gold Loan Glam or Mortgage Trap?


1. At a Glance

Fedbank Financial Services (Fedfina), the offspring of Federal Bank, is trying to be the Bajaj Finance of South India but currently looks more like Muthoot’s ambitious cousin. With AUM ₹14,220 Cr, gold loans at 35%, mortgages at 50%, and NPAs chilling at 1.5%, the company flaunts low borrowing cost (9%) but low returns too (ROE 9.3%). Stock has doubled in a year but profits are crawling. Basically, a Ferrari engine with a bullock cart speed limit.


2. Introduction

Welcome to the NBFC circus, where every company is either lending against gold, property, or hopes and dreams. Fedfina entered the ring as Federal Bank’s retail-focused NBFC baby, and markets lapped it up during IPO.

The pitch is simple:

  • Borrow cheap (thanks to daddy Federal Bank).
  • Lend to middle-class India (gold, LAP, MSME).
  • Keep NPAs low, keep investors happy.

In reality, profit growth is slowing, management churn looks like IPL auctions, and ROE remains lower than an FD in Bandhan Bank. Yet, the stock rallied 74% in 6 months because—well—retail loves shiny “gold loan” stories.

The question: is Fedfina a golden goose or just a pawn broker with better branding?


3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?

  • Mortgage Loans (₹7,175 Cr, 50.5% AUM): Ticket size ₹31.7 lakh. Basically, urban middle-class LAP (Loan Against Property). Yields ~13%.
  • Gold Loans (₹4,934 Cr, 34.7% AUM): Ticket size ₹1.2 lakh. The emergency ATM of Indian households. Yields ~15.8%.
  • Business Loans (₹1,932 Cr, 13.6% AUM): Ticket size ₹23.4 lakh. Collateralized MSME loans. Yields ~17%.

Regional dominance: South 44%, West 35%, North 21%. Translation – mostly Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra.

Distribution: 665 branches + 2100 channel partners. Basically, a chai-samosa + EMI shop in every district HQ.


4. Financials Overview

MetricLatest Qtr (Jun’25)YoY Qtr (Jun’24)Prev Qtr (Mar’25)YoY %QoQ %
Revenue₹520 Cr₹477 Cr₹536 Cr+8.9%-3.0%
EBITDA₹112 Cr₹91 Cr₹111 Cr+23.1%+0.9%
PAT₹75 Cr₹70 Cr₹72 Cr+7.1%+4.2%
EPS (₹)2.011.891.92+6.3%+4.7%

Comment: Revenue up 9% YoY, PAT up 7%. Not bad, but hardly firecracker stuff. PAT margin ~14%, respectable for NBFC, but return ratios limp.


5. Valuation Discussion – Fair Value Range

  • P/E Method: EPS ₹6.2 × 18x–26x = ₹110 – ₹160
  • P/B Method: BV ₹68 × 2.0–2.5x = ₹135 – ₹170
  • DCF Shortcut: AUM CAGR 25%, ROE 10–12%, WACC 12% → ₹120 – ₹165

👉 Fair Value Range = ₹110 – ₹170
(Educational only. No SEBI drama please.)


6. What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, Drama

  • NCD Issue up to ₹2,500 Cr (Aug’25): More debt incoming, because NBFCs survive on perpetual borrowing.
  • Management Exits: COO resigned Aug’25. Earlier, CEO Anil Kothuri left in Oct’24. Three

Eduinvesting Team

https://eduinvesting.in/

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