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United Spirits Ltd – β‚Ή95,000 Cr Market Cap Hangover Machine 🍾


1. At a Glance

United Spirits Ltd (USL), aka Diageo India, is what happens when Scotch meets jugaad distribution. With β‚Ή95,436 Cr market cap and 25% share in India’s liquor market, it sells everything from Johnnie Walker to McDowell’s No.1 (the β€œdefault peg” for half of small-town India). But despite being almost debt-free and highly profitable, the stock trades at a P/E of 61β€”basically, the market thinks it’s premium single malt, while growth is more like β€œslowly diluted soda.”


2. Introduction

USL is India’s largest liquor company and the world’s #2 spirits giant (thanks to parent Diageo PLC, UK). If alcohol is recession-proof, USL is supposed to be a safe play. But the real story?

  • Its β€œprestige and above” portfolio (think Johnnie Walker, Black Dog, Royal Challenge, etc.) makes up 72% of revenues, while mass market β€œpopular” brands (think McDowell’s peg at weddings) shrink to 26%.
  • Every year, it launches β€œfancy” labels like Godawan (craft Indian single malt) or Epitome Reserve, but actual sales still rely on Indian whiskey loyalists who swear by Royal Challenge because β€œmy uncle drinks it.”
  • Distribution is massive: 37 plants + 70,000 outlets = liquor uncle’s dream logistics.

In short: it’s not just selling alcohol; it’s selling aspirationβ€”whether in 30ml sachets or β‚Ή8,000 bottles.


3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?

Simple: get Indians drunk, but with branding.

  • Whiskey: 60%+ of Indian spirits consumption. USL dominates with Johnnie Walker, VAT 69, McDowell’s, Signature, and Antiquity.
  • Rum & Vodka: Captain Morgan and Smirnoffβ€”popular with college kids who don’t read P&L.
  • Gin: Acquired Nao Spirits (maker of Greater Than and Hapusa gins) in 2025 for ~β‚Ή110 Cr, betting on urban millennials who think gin = personality.
  • Premiumization Strategy: Push people up from mass McDowell’s to Johnnie Walker, because Diageo makes more money per peg when you Instagram it.

USL doesn’t just sell liquor. It sells stories: β€œsharing Black & White with Heston Blumenthal.” Yes, because obviously whisky tastes better when a celebrity chef tells you so.


4. Financials Overview

Source table
MetricLatest Qtr (Jun’25)YoY Qtr (Jun’24)Prev Qtr (Mar’25)YoY %QoQ %
Revenueβ‚Ή3,021 Crβ‚Ή2,761 Crβ‚Ή3,031 Cr+9.4%-0.3%
EBITDAβ‚Ή638 Crβ‚Ή712 Crβ‚Ή459 Cr-10.4%+39.0%
PATβ‚Ή417 Crβ‚Ή485 Crβ‚Ή421 Cr-14.0%-1.0%
EPS (β‚Ή)5.76.75.8-14.3%-1.7%

Comment: Sales are up, profits are downβ€”like your bar tab after ordering too many cocktails.


5. Valuation – Fair Value Range Only

  • P/E Method: EPS ~β‚Ή21; sector P/E ~30–40x β†’ β‚Ή630–₹840.
  • EV/EBITDA: EV β‚Ή93,886 Cr; EBITDA ~β‚Ή2,540 Cr β†’ EV/EBITDA ~37x. Peers trade ~20–25x β†’ fair price = β‚Ή850–₹1,100.
  • DCF: Assuming 10% growth, 11% discount rate β†’ β‚Ή900–₹1,150.

πŸ‘‰ Fair Value Range: β‚Ή850 – β‚Ή1,150 (vs CMP β‚Ή1,312).
Disclaimer: Educational only.


6. What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, Drama

  • NAO Spirits buyout (2025): Gin game strong. Greater Than gin now under Diageo’s hangover umbrella.
  • CEO shuffle (2025): Hina Nagarajan exits; Praveen Someshwar takes charge with a fat β‚Ή14 Cr package.
  • Plant closures: Hyderabad facility to shut by July 2025β€”efficiency drive, or just moving booze production to cheaper states?
  • Litigation drama: β‚Ή1,337 Cr loan claim vs United Breweries liquidator still pending. Plus, battles with Canteen Stores Dept. for β‚Ή365

One Response

  1. Can’t be written better.. blown by the humor whereas stung by the expensiveness of the stock and being a share holder, revenue growth is tepid.. your last line is punch in the gut.. keep writing..

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