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Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd – ₹3 Lakh Crore Giant Still Pumping Like It’s 1974


1. At a Glance

ONGC is like that uncle at every wedding who refuses to retire—still drinking, still dancing, and still claiming he built the house. With a ₹3,01,000 Cr market cap, 71% share in India’s oil output, and 84% in gas, it remains India’s fossil-fuel daddy. But here’s the twist: sales growth is flatter than soda left open overnight, while profit swings harder than a drunk DJ at Sangeet.


2. Introduction

ONGC is India’s oil ATM, but unlike your SBI ATM, it doesn’t run out of cash—it runs out of crude. It pumps 44.51 million tonnes of oil and gas, but production is slowly leaking like pani from your old cooler.

Every Indian car, scooter, and tharra distillery has probably consumed ONGC’s products. It’s a Maharatna PSU, meaning the government milks it for dividends while also tying its hands with regulations. Think of it as the obedient eldest son in a joint family—working overtime, paying everyone’s bills, and still getting yelled at by chacha-ji (aka Ministry of Petroleum).

But while profits are volatile (down 21% TTM), dividend yield of 5% is the mithai box shareholders receive every year. Is that enough to keep patience?

What do you think: would you hold ONGC for dividends, or does PSU drama scare you off?


3. Business Model – WTF Do They Even Do?

ONGC’s business model is basically “dig, pump, and pray.”

  • Exploration & Production (Core): The company makes discoveries across Jodhpur, Mehsana, Assam, and Mumbai offshore. It drilled 413 wells in 9M FY25. Some hit oil, others hit… disappointment.
  • International Bets: Through ONGC Videsh, it has 32 assets in 15 countries. Unfortunately, production abroad is also falling—international oil 5.5 MMT vs 7.1 last year.
  • Refining & Petrochemicals: Subsidiaries like MRPL (refinery) and OPaL (petchem) keep the value chain alive, though refining margins halved (GRM fell to $4–5 per bbl).
  • Downstream Play: HPCL gives it pipelines, pumps, and pan-India retail coverage. Think of it as ONGC’s “Netflix family plan”—covers everyone.

So in short, it’s not just drilling. It’s an integrated oil-to-cooking gas empire—just don’t expect Silicon Valley growth.


4. Financials Overview

Quarterly Snapshot (₹ Cr)

Source table
MetricJun 2025Jun 2024Mar 2025YoY %QoQ %
Revenue1,63,1081,68,9681,70,812-3.5%-4.5%
EBITDA25,67921,78522,085+17.8%+16.3%
PAT11,5549,7768,856+18.2%+30.5%
EPS (₹)7.797.935.82-1.8%+33.9%

Annualised EPS = ₹31.2 → P/E at CMP ₹239 = 7.6x.

Witty Note: Imagine earning ₹1.6 lakh crore and still being told “profits thode aur badhao” by babus. Classic PSU parent–child relationship.


5. Valuation – Fair Value Range Only

  • P/E Method: EPS ₹31.2 × Industry P/E 11.4 = ₹356 (upper) → Apply PSU discount → ₹220–300 range.
  • EV/EBITDA: EV ₹4,61,950 Cr ÷ EBITDA ~₹92,500 Cr = 5.0x vs global 6–7x. Fair band = ₹250–330.
  • DCF (Assuming FCF ₹50,000 Cr, growth 3%, discount 12%): Fair range = ₹210–280.

👉 Fair Value Range: ₹220 – 320

Disclaimer: This range is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.


6. What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, Drama

  • KG Basin Projects: The KG-DWN-98/2 field is ONGC’s Bahubali sequel—huge promises, endless delays, but still hyped.
  • BP Partnership: BP has been hired as Technical Service Provider to improve MH field—basically ONGC outsourcing jugaad.
  • Renewables: Approved ₹4,963 Cr capex for 0.6 GW green projects. Oil giant trying to
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