ideaForge Technology Ltd: 95% Revenue Wipeout, ₹137 Cr Army Order & A Drone Crash Landing

1. At a Glance

India’s drone darling ideaForge once flew high with IPO hype, defence orders, and “Make in India” tailwinds. But FY25 turned into a mid-air stall: revenues fell 95% YoY, order book collapsed from ₹125 Cr to ₹13.6 Cr, and losses ballooned to ₹87 Cr. Yet, the company flaunts 50% domestic UAV market share and global rank 3 in dual-use drones. Stock is now at ₹499 (down 30% YoY), with a ₹2,154 Cr mcap — proof that hype has a longer flight time than drones.

2. Introduction

Think of ideaForge as the Ranveer Singh of the Indian defence-tech space — energetic entry, market leader aura, but struggling with consistency.

From Netra drones used in the 26/11 Mumbai attacks to being the first VTOL hybrid UAV developer, ideaForge’s journey was glamourous. It IPO’d in 2023 at premium valuations, riding the “defence manufacturing” narrative.

But FY25 slapped reality:

Elections slowed defence orders.
Procurement delays left L1 orders stuck in limbo.
Revenue collapsed from ₹314 Cr in FY24 to ₹88 Cr in FY25.
Losses doubled to -₹87 Cr.

Yet the company isn’t giving up. It launched new drones (NETRA 5, Switch V2), tied up with Sterlite and Vantage Robotics (US), and bagged a fresh ₹137 Cr Indian Army order in Jun’25. The question: is this a temporary turbulence or a structural nosedive?

3. Business Model (WTF Do They Even Do?)

ideaForge designs, manufactures, and sells Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs):

Defence (59% of revenue, down from 80% in FY22): Long-range, endurance drones like SWITCH, Q4i, Q6 — used by Army, police, disaster relief. Flight time: up to 120 minutes, range: 15 km.
Civil (41%): Lightweight UAVs like NINJA, RYNO — used in mapping, surveillance, energy, and forestry.
Software & Solutions: BlueFire live-streaming, FlyghtCloud (data mgmt), Naksh imaging payloads.
Support: ideaForge CARE — after-sales, repairs, mission readiness.

Unlike DJI (China), ideaForge focuses on dual-use, high-spec drones for India’s defence/civil sectors. But it’s a project-based, lumpy revenue model dependent on government contracts.

4. Financials Overview (Q1 FY26)

Source table

Metric	Jun’25	Jun’24	Mar’25	YoY %	QoQ %
Revenue	₹12.8 Cr	₹86 Cr	₹20 Cr	-85%	-36%
EBITDA	-₹19 Cr	₹2 Cr	-₹22 Cr	–	+14%
PAT	-₹23.6 Cr	₹1 Cr	-₹24 Cr	-2,114%	-2%
EPS	-₹5.45	₹0.27	-₹5.97	-2,118%	+9%

Commentary: Revenue vanished like a drone in a jamming zone. Profits deep in red. Yet order wins hint at revival in FY26.

5. Valuation (Fair Value RANGE)

P/E Method: EPS is negative → not meaningful.
EV/EBITDA: EV ₹2,073 Cr / EBITDA (-₹74 Cr) = nonsense multiple.
P/S Method: Sales ₹88 Cr; Price/Sales 24.5x. Defence peers trade at 4–6x. → FV ≈ ₹150–₹250.
DCF (optimistic: revenue recovers to ₹300 Cr, 12% margin): FV ≈ ₹350–₹450.

Fair Value Range: ₹150 – ₹450.
“This FV range is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.”

6. What’s Cooking – News, Triggers, Drama

Big Army Order (Jun’25): ₹137 Cr Mini UAV order, to be delivered in 12 months. Could double FY26 revenues.
New Products: NETRA 5, Switch V2, Tactical ZOLT (concept), Logistics YETI drone. Basically — drones for soldiers, surveyors, and Swiggy (someday).
Global Push: $1.8 Mn invested in US-based Vantage Robotics. A foot in the door of the American drone ecosystem.
Partnerships: Sterlite’s Resonia collab → drones in energy/infra surveillance.
Problem: Order book still puny at ₹13.6 Cr, down 90%. L1 pipeline is

To Read Full 16 Point