EduInvesting.in | May 13, 2025 – Safe Haven or Sinking Ship?
Gold just hit an all-time high — ₹90,000 per 10 grams in India and $3,080/oz globally — and every uncle at the jewelry store was whispering “beta abhi le lo, aur mehenga hoga.”
But wait… a US-based Morningstar analyst just showed up with a forecast so brutal, it could melt your gold chain:
“Gold could fall 38–40% in the coming years.”
Yes. You read that right. From ₹90,000 to ₹55,000.
And now your family WhatsApp group is suddenly silent.
📊 What’s Behind This Bold Prediction?
John Mills, strategist at Morningstar, dropped a bombshell outlook:
- Gold could fall from $3,080 to $1,820 per ounce globally
- In India, that would mean a collapse from ₹90,000 to ~₹55,000 per 10g
🧠 EduInvestor Translation:
“The safe haven might not be so safe anymore. And if you’re buying gold thinking it’ll save you from stock market chaos… you might need saving first.”
🔍 Why the Sudden Bearish View?
1. 📦 Supply Surge
- Mining profits hit $950/oz in 2024
- Global reserves up 9%
- Australia & recycled gold flooding the market
Translation: Everyone’s selling gold like it’s 2020 again.
2. 📉 Demand Drop
- Central bank buying is slowing down
- World Gold Council: 71% of central banks plan to reduce or maintain holdings
- Retail buyers waiting for “better entry” (read: lower prices)
3. 😬 Market Saturation
- Gold ETFs seeing frothy inflows (usually a top sign)
- M&A activity up 32% in gold mining — last time that happened? Just before 2012 crash.
💥 But Wait… Goldman & BoFA Disagree
- Goldman Sachs: “We see $3,300 by year-end.”
- BoFA: “Gold could reach $3,500 in 2 years.”
Why? Inflation, geopolitics, and the fact that gold bugs never die.
So now we have two camps:
- Team Bear: “It’s a bubble.”
- Team Bull: “It’s just beginning.”
📈 What Should You Do as an Indian Investor?
| If you’re… | Consider This |
|---|---|
| Holding physical gold | Sit tight or hedge with gold ETFs (or insurance 😅) |
| Planning to buy at ₹90,000 | Maybe don’t. Chill. Let it correct. |
| In it for weddings only | Doesn’t matter. You’ll buy anyway 💍 |
| Trader with gold ETFs | Watch for ₹80,000 breakdown. If it cracks… run. |
🧾 Gold Price Trajectory (Speculative)
| Price Point | Status |
|---|---|
| ₹90,000 | All-time high (current) 🥇 |
| ₹80,000 | Key support (already wobbly) |
| ₹72,000 | Panic selling zone |
| ₹60,000 | Bloodbath begins |
| ₹55,000 | “I told you so” from Morningstar guy |
🧠 EduInvestor Final Take:
“Gold has gone from haven to headline. And when a Morningstar analyst tells you it could fall 40%, maybe it’s time to hold off on that ‘investment necklace.’ Profit booking might be smarter than polishing.”
🔮 TL;DR for the Busy Investor:
- Yes, gold is at a record high
- Yes, some say it can go higher
- But a 40% crash is also on the table
- Retailers: Stay alert. Don’t turn your SIPs into chains.
