EduInvesting.in | 12 May 2025

Because nothing says ‘healthy markets’ like a geopolitical conflict, a Fed confused about inflation, and Tata Steel trying to justify its existence.

🧨 The Week That Was: Boom, Bam, Border Clash

Just when investors were celebrating Nifty’s flirtation with 24,500, along came Pakistan with a missile and the market said, “Arrey bhai, not again.”

• Nifty: Down 1.4%
• Sensex: -1047 points
• VIX: Spiked harder than your blood pressure when Paytm crashes again
• FIIs: Still confused, but kind of buying
• DIIs: Holding the fort like desi aunties holding their sabzi bags in a train stampede

🔮 What’s Cooking This Week?

This week is like that Indian family wedding:

• Too many guests (global events)
• Confusing relatives (Fed, RBI, CPI)
• One distant cousin who always fights (Pakistan)

🌍 GLOBAL DRAMA: THE FED & THE TRADE WARS

🏦 Jerome Powell: “We might cut rates, but like… we might not.”

• U.S. Inflation data lands Tuesday
• CPI print will decide if the Fed hugs markets or ghost them again
• If inflation cools → Risk-on
• If inflation spikes → Nifty can say tata to 24K

Also:

• China cut rates → thanks Xi bro
• US-UK trade deal talks = mood thoda thanda
• Oil up → not great for India
• Dollar Index holding strong like a retired fauji uncle

🔫 INDIA VS PAKISTAN: MARKETS VS MISSILES

After India launched Operation Sindoor (no, not the Ekta Kapoor kind), Pakistan responded like every IPL team that plays against CSK — with misplaced aggression.

Markets hate:

• Cross-border tensions
• Uncertainty
• Random missiles during earnings season

So:

• Expect volatility, especially if there’s more military action
• But if things chill → markets might bounce like PSU stocks in a budget speech

📈 Q4 Earnings Parade: Who’s Getting a Trophy?

🎤 On the mic this week:

• Tata Steel: If results are as cold as its stock, market will punish
• Hero MotoCorp: Can’t spell “2-wheeler king” without “earnings”
• Bharti Airtel: 5G? Good. ARPU? Better be
• GAIL: Let’s see if they deliver gas or just hot air
• Cipla, Lupin: Pharma flex incoming? Or just a paracetamol-level result?

🎯 Eyes on:

• Management commentary → because guidance > balance sheet
• Margin stress → will inflation finally leave or just ghost earnings again?

📊 INFLATION DATA: A New Low or a Hidden Surprise?

March CPI: 3.34% = Low. Beautiful. Almost poetic.
April CPI? Expected to be stable, unless tomatoes act up again.

📉 If CPI stays low:

• Rate cut hope grows 🌱
• Bond yields drop
• NBFCs smile
• Your EMI may still stay the same, but at least hope survives

🔍 STOCKS TO STALK THIS WEEK

📉 SECTORS: WHO’S GOT MOOD SWINGS?

💣 Banks:

• Took a solid beating
• Bank Nifty broke 53K
• Support at 52,400 — if that breaks, RIP for the week

🛞 Auto:

• Surprisingly strong
• Hero Moto + Tata Motors earnings may continue the momentum

💻 IT:

• Decent support from global tech
• Rupee movement key
• Look for INFY/HCL to stabilize the boat

💊 Pharma:

• Cipla and Lupin results this week
• Could turn the corner if they show US export mojo

🛡️ Defence:

• Tensions = defence stocks up
• HAL, BEL, Mazagon — all watching the news channels like we are

📈 TECHNICALS: THE TRADING ZONE

Volatility = high
Conviction = low
Risk = moderate
Opportunity = only for those with guts & stoplosses

🌊 FLOW CHECK: WHO’S BUYING THIS DIP?

• FIIs: Bought ₹5,087 Cr last week
• DIIs: Bought ₹10,450 Cr — desi power flex
• Net: 💰 Still bullish underneath the fear fog

But… May month-to-date:

• FIIs still net negative by $1.3B
• Because war + US inflation + meme stocks > logic

🧠 EDU-INVESTING WISDOM OF THE WEEK

“When markets panic, buy courageously. When they rejoice, sell like you stole it.”
– Some uncle on CNBC probably

🎯 STRATEGY: WHAT SHOULD YOU DO?

Long-term investor?

✅ Sit tight
✅ Add on dips
✅ Eat dal-chawal, not panic-chawal

Trader?

🚫 No hero trades
✅ Buy on support
✅ Sell near resistance
✅ Tight stoploss
✅ Laugh at your own tears if wrong

🎬 Final Word: Ready, Set, Hedge.

This week is high-risk, high-sentiment, low-conviction.

But this is where stories are made. The market won’t give you certainty, but it will give you volatility, excitement, and a hundred “should’ve sold” moments.

So buckle up.

Dalal Street might be a battlefield — but you, my friend, have the tools, the data, and the chutzpah.

Let’s go.