✨ At a Glance
In a world where malls were supposed to die post-COVID, Phoenix Mills went full phoenix-mode. Revenue 2.6x in 5 years. PAT 5x. Stock up 4.3x. All this while leasing shops, not selling plots. If “boring is profitable” needed a mascot in Indian real estate, it would be wearing a Zara tee and chilling at High Street Phoenix.
🏦 Part 1: Malls, Hotels, Offices… Oh My!
Phoenix Mills Ltd isn’t your average builder-bro stock.
- Core biz = Malls. 9 iconic shopping centres across top Indian cities
- 0.64 million sqm of retail space, built for rent, not for flipping
- Commercial office + hospitality biz adding slow, sticky cash
Revenue split (FY25):
- Retail & Property: 79%
- Hospitality (St Regis etc.): 12%
- Commercial/Office Leasing: 9%
They basically rent space to Starbucks and let your girlfriend do the rest of the work.
📊 Part 2: The Boringly Profitable Financials
📈 FY20 to FY25 Snapshot
| Year | Revenue (₹ Cr) | Net Profit (₹ Cr) | EPS (₹) | OPM % | ROCE % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY20 | 1,936 | 388 | 10.91 | 50% | 9% |
| FY21 | 1,040 | 48 | 1.68 | 48% | 4% |
| FY22 | 1,460 | 268 | 6.65 | 50% | 5% |
| FY23 | 2,616 | 1,478 | 37.37 | 58% | 10% |
| FY24 | 3,972 | 1,333 | 30.76 | 55% | 12% |
| FY25 | 3,814 | 1,307 | 27.53 | 57% | 11% |
- 5-Year Revenue CAGR: 14.5%
- 5-Year PAT CAGR: 25% 🔥
- OPM: Never dipped below 47%, peaked at 61%. Insane.
This is not a real estate stock. It’s a cash cow wearing a Louis Vuitton belt.
🤔 Part 3: What Powered the Rebound?
- Retail rentals recovered post-COVID with footfalls back to 100%+
- St Regis hotel business saw huge ARRs and occupancy spikes
- Operating leverage kicked in as expenses stayed flattish
- Strong other income kicker (esp. FY23)
Phoenix is now a play on India’s aspirational shopping — not land prices.
🏢 Part 4: Balance Sheet & Capex Discipline
| Metric | FY20 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|
| Net Worth | ₹4,009 Cr | ₹10,449 Cr |
| Borrowings | ₹4,308 Cr | ₹4,687 Cr |
| Net Debt/Equity | ~1.1x | ~0.45x |
| CWIP | ₹1,534 Cr | ₹3,143 Cr |
They borrowed big in FY18–20, but asset maturity + rent = now self-funded. Smart compounding.
🥇 Part 5: Shareholding Drama
| Category | Jun ’22 | Mar ’25 |
|---|---|---|
| Promoters | 47.32% | 47.26% |
| FII | 31.60% | 36.14% |
| DII | 16.68% | 12.59% |
| Public | 4.40% | 3.99% |
- Promoters: Steady
- FIIs: Buying like Diwali sale at H&M
- DIIs: Profit-booking?
- Retail: Almost negligible — niche investor base
🔰 Part 6: Valuation & FV Range
- CMP: ₹1,614
- FY25 EPS: ₹27.53
- P/E: ~59x (rich!)
- Historical P/E range: 30–70x
- ROCE: 11%, not amazing but steady
Let’s assume:
- FY26 EPS = ₹32 (modest growth)
- Fair P/E band = 40x to 55x (due to high-quality rental biz)
🎯 FV Range = ₹1,280 to ₹1,760
CMP is near the upper band. Not cheap, not hyped. Just fully priced.
📋 Part 7: Final Verdict
If you want a real estate stock where you don’t have to time launches or fear inventory overhang…
- ✔ 5x PAT growth in 5 years
- ✔ Institutional interest increasing
- ✔ No dependence on homebuyers
- ✔ Rental cash flows + mall expansion in Tier 1 cities
…Phoenix Mills is not the kind of mall you avoid. It’s the kind of mall you own.
Let others bet on affordable housing. You bet on Zara, Sephora, Starbucks footfalls.
📝 Written by Prashant | 🗕️ June 18, 2025
Tags: Phoenix Mills, Real Estate Stocks, Mall Business, FY25 Results, Indian Retail, REIT Alternative, Institutional Ownership, Fair Value
